October 8, 2024 at 7:00 AM
2024 SoxProspects.com All-Stars: Pitchers
Following up on Monday's position player All-Stars, today brings the SoxProspects.com 2024 All-Star pitchers. Three players return from last year's list, joined by three 2023 draftees and a 2023 international signing. The Red Sox signed 15 pitchers as part of their 2024 draft class, which could make this list look significantly different come next year.
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Valera only threw 63 1/3 innings this season, but he was arguably the most dominant starting pitcher in the system when he was on the mound. He turned 18 in May and was stateside for the first time after signing for $45,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2023. He breezed through the FCL, where he was named a Florida Complex League All-Star with an ERA of 1.79 and a WHIP of 0.77 over 40 1/3 innings. He retired 27 batters in a row over his final two starts in the FCL and made his Salem debut on July 25. He opened with 12 scoreless innings over his first three starts there and finished with a 2.35 ERA over 23 innings. On the season, he walked 28 and struck out 68. Ranked 24th in the system, Valera has a ton of upside but also comes with a lot of risk inherent with young pitching prospects. He has a long way to go in his development, but the 6-foot-3 right-hander checks several boxes with his impressive fastball and a high-spin breaking ball.
Dobbins is the highest-ranked pitching prospect to receive an All-Star nod at number 18 in the rankings. Dobbins was also named the Starting Pitcher of the Year in the system by the Red Sox in their minor league awards, and this is his second consecutive SoxProspects.com All-Star award. The 25-year-old spent most of the season in Portland before a late call-up to Worcester. With the Sea Dogs, he went 7-3 with a 3.17 ERA over 105 innings, with 98 strikeouts and 39 walks. While he was good all season in Double-A, he hit another gear in July. Over his last eight starts for Portland from July 9 through August 20, his ERA was a minuscule 1.83 over 39 1/3 innings. He carried that on to Worcester as he notched an ERA of 2.61 in 20 2/3 innings over four starts. At the beginning of the season, Dobbins was thought of more as a swingman or multi-inning reliever. That was due in part to some injury history, as he did have Tommy John surgery in college. But he stayed healthy for the full season and threw the second-most innings in the system. That, coupled with his tremendous end to the season, has scouts talking about him more as a potential long-term starter heading into 2025.
Monegro did not look like he was on his way to repeating as an All-Star through the end of June. After missing the first month, he made three rehab appearances in the FCL and debuted with Greenville on June 2. The rust was evident as he had an ERA of 7.36 in 22 innings over his first six starts in High-A. The 21-year-old then went on one of the more impressive runs we have seen in the system in recent years, throwing 45 straight scoreless innings over parts of 10 starts. It started with his July 2 start when he finished with 2 1/3 scoreless innings and concluded in his September 7 start when he began with 3 2/3 shutout innings before allowing a two-run double. Between those dates, he made eight starts and posted a 0.00 ERA over 39 innings. He struck out 82 batters over 66 innings with the Drive while walking 26. The 21-year-old has a great feel for his breaking ball and throws it about 70 percent of the time. His fastball is fringy as it grades poorly on the advanced metrics. Ranked 22nd in the system, Monegro will face a tough test next season in Portland, where he will have to show he can get hitters out with his fastball in the high minors.
Rodriguez opened the 2024 campaign in Salem, where he spent part of 2022 and all of 2023. Over the first two months of the season, he was missing more bats than before, but his ERA of 3.82 and WHIP of 1.39 were above his 2023 numbers at the same level. He flipped the switch in June as he did not allow an earned over four starts (20 innings) on his way to winning the SoxProspects.com Pitcher of the Month award. He was promoted to Greenville after the All-Star break and finished the year there while posting an ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.26 over 28 2/3 innings. Boston's 21st-ranked prospect added significant velocity in 2024, sitting at 94-97 while topping out at 99. His peripheral stats in Greenville took a step back as his strikeout rate dipped and his walk rate spiked. Adding more movement on his fastball and more consistency on his offspeed pitches will go a long way toward Rodriguez showing back up on this list next season.
A fifth-round pick in 2023 out of the University of Virginia, Early finished second in the system with strikeouts during his first full season. He showed an impressive ability to miss bats in Greenville and Portland, as he struck out about 12 batters per nine innings for both teams. His best pitch is a changeup that the left-hander throws with advanced feel and confidence. It shows good separation from his fastball at 80-82. His fastball has hit 95 while mostly sitting 91-93. His season got off to a bit of a slow start in April with Greenville, but he was strong over his final 11 starts before his promotion to Portland. He finished with a 3.72 ERA in High-A over 67 2/3 innings and a 4.50 ERA in Double-A over 36 innings. While the sample size is relatively small, the advanced metrics show he was unlucky in Double-A, with an expected ERA of 2.85. The 22-year-old is 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds and has some remaining projection on his athletic frame. Adding more velocity to his fastball can help the system's 25th-ranked prospect stick as a starter long-term.
This is the second straight year as an All-Star for Guerrero, who excelled in a cup of coffee with Boston at the end of the season. A 17th-round pick in the 2021 draft and the system's 27th-ranked prospect, Guerrero opened the year in Worcester and had sustained success. In 54 1/3 innings across 42 appearances, he pitched to a 3.31 ERA with the WooSox while striking out 79 and walking 32. He made his major league debut on September 8 and finished the year by allowing only one unearned run over 10 innings with the Red Sox. He struck out nine and walked two while batters hit .182 against him. The advanced metrics on his fastball and changeup were very impressive during his brief stint in the majors, and the slider was solid, too. He has put himself firmly in consideration to break camp with the big league club next spring, and he will look to follow Justin Slaten's path of working his way from middle relief to high-leverage roles down the stretch.
Ingrassia started the season in a pure relief role in Salem but worked his way into a rotation spot by the middle of May. His first nine appearances came out of the bullpen, and he was almost unhittable. He struck out 35 over 18 innings while walking five. Batters had a .562 OPS against him, with a .419 batting average on balls in play. He moved into the rotation from there, throwing three to five innings per game. He made nine starts before left elbow inflammation shut him down for about six weeks. In those nine starts, he was just as dominant as before, posting a 2.04 ERA over 35 1/3 innings with 12 walks and 51 strikeouts. He returned for three appearances at the end of the season, posting five more shutout innings with seven strikeouts. Even with the missed time, the 22-year-old was named a 2024 Carolina League Season-End All-Star, and he rose to 43rd in the rankings. The left-hander has a three-pitch mix and a deceptive delivery, which allows him to miss bats with a fastball that sits 90-92.
Carlson joins Early and Ingrassia as pitchers drafted in 2023 to make the list. Carlson was a 12th-round pick out of the University of North Carolina, where he was a two-year starter. The 23-year-old opened the season in Salem as a piggyback starter and put his name on the map quickly with eight strikeouts in 3 1/3 shutout innings in his second appearance. He was a consistent force for Salem out of the bullpen and finished his tenure there with a 2.81 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 57 2/3 innings. He was rewarded with a late-season call-up to Greenville, where he allowed three runs in 11 2/3 innings. Carlson slots in at 42nd in the system as he has a few interesting traits that teams value. He has a deceptive delivery with elite extension and a three-pitch mix. This allowed him to have one of the highest fastball whiff rates in the organization despite topping at 95mph and sitting 90-93.
Photo Credit: All photos by Kelly O'Connor