Minor Notes: Potts and Rosario join the system; Dalbec homers in debut

Here are Monday's minor league notes:

• With the trade deadline approaching on Monday, the Red Sox traded first baseman Mitch Moreland to the San Diego Padres in exchange for prospects Hudson Potts and Jeisson Rosario. MLB Pipeline rated Potts at No. 16 and Rosario at No. 19 in a loaded San Diego farm system, while Baseball America had Potts at No. 17 and Rosario at No. 28. 

• Potts was the 24th overall pick in the 2016 Draft, and while he was drafted as a shortstop, he has primarily played third base while also getting some reps at second base. Equipped with a strong arm and plus power, the Red Sox are hoping he can continue to develop his approach at the plate, as his hit tool is the main thing holding him back from being a more valuable prospect. Fangraphs had him rated as the 126th-best prospect in baseball after the 2018 season, but after striking out in 28.6 percent of his at-bats in Double-A in 2019 and hitting only .227, he dropped off the top-100 radar. 
  

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2014 Draft Retrospective: Chavis and Kopech not yet quite in focus

Thank you for checking in on the newest entry in our draft retrospective series. Tuesday was a pick-by-pick rundown of 2014, while today we will dig a little deeper into a few of the more interesting and prominent draftees. For a quick list and links to player pages, check out our Draft History page.

2014 Draft

Background

After an unexpected 97-win, World Series Championship 2013 season that was helped by a bunch of veteran free agent signings that all seemed to work out perfectly, the Sox fell right back to where they were after the 2012 season in 2014: last place. They started out the year by hovering right around .500 for the first month and a half, but a demoralizing 10-game losing streak that ended about two weeks before the draft sunk them from 20-19 to 20-29. The magic of 2013 had clearly worn off, and the 2014 draft was looking more and more important, as it appeared that veterans like Jon Lester, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, Shane Victorino, and Stephen Drew were not going to be a part of the next great Red Sox team.

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Podcast Ep. #189 - I think that's genius, actually

With the trade deadline coming up, Chris and Ian get back on the line to talk trades. They address the deal that sent Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree to the Phillies and brought back Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold. The guys then revisited the trade talks with the Padres, and while they don’t see Wil Myers coming to Boston, they do see the Red Sox as being in a good spot to take on salary and get decent young talent in exchange. The guys also talked who the club should and should not move. They talk through Casas joining the Alternate Training Site and who might join them. And we close out the show with more of your terrific questions.

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Scouting Report Update: Connor Seabold

Last week, the Red Sox made their first deal of what looks to be a busy 2020 trade deadline season, shipping Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, cash, and a player to be named later or more cash in exchange for Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold. While Pivetta represents a high-risk, high-reward return with significant MLB experience, Seabold is a minor leaguer with a lower ceiling, but a high likelihood of being a useful major league pitcher in the near future, perhaps as soon as next year.

For logistical reasons, it may take a few more days to get Pivetta's and Seabold's player pages up, but in the meantime, here is Seabold's initial scouting report, compiled from available data and reports as well as from our scouting sources across the game.

Physical Description: Average, athletic frame. Minimal remaining projection.

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Doesn’t use a wind-up. Medium-high leg kick. Controlled, repeatable delivery.

Fastball: 91-93 mph. Tops out at 95 mph. Above-average command and control profile. Around the plate, throws quality strikes. Really knows how to control the zone and gets a surprising number of whiffs with the pitch. Velocity has improved in pro ball. Potential average offering.

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2014 Draft Retrospective: The Picks

We welcome you to the 2014 edition of the SoxProspects.com Draft Retrospective series. Over the next several weeks, we will revisit each draft going back to the start of the SoxProspects.com era. Each retrospective will come in two parts: The first will be a pick-by-pick recap of each selection with very brief comments, including their peak rank on the SoxProspects.com Top 60, as well as some of the notable players the team passed on to make those picks. Players who signed are in bold, those who did not are in italics. Bonus numbers are included where available.

The Sox were back to picking at the back end of the first round following a surprise championship season in 2013. They received a compensation pick as well because of Jacoby Ellsbury’s free agent departure, meaning they had two of the first 33 picks. Those two picks turned out to be key pieces of Boston’s future, each in a different way. The team gambled on a couple high school kids, one an infielder and the other a right-handed pitcher. Both have worked out just fine. One of them helped land a key piece of the 2018 championship team, while the other had a nice rookie campaign for the Sox in 2019.

For a quick list and links to player pages, check out our Draft History page.

1 (26) Michael Chavis, SS, Sprayberry HS (Ga.)

Bonus: $1,870,500; Slot Value: $1,870,500

Chavis’ (pictured) road to the big leagues had several obstacles including thumb, finger, elbow, and wrist injuries that cost him significant time. He also dealt with an 80-game suspension in early 2018 for violating the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Policy. The suspension came after Chavis broke out in 2017, hitting .282 with 31 home runs between Salem and Portland. Chavis finally made his big league debut on April 20, 2019, with a pinch-hit double in Tampa Bay off of Jose Alvarado in his first plate appearance. Chavis was on fire to start his career, giving the Red Sox a much-needed jolt. He maintained a .903 OPS through his first 34 games, hitting .279 with a .376 OBP and 10 home runs through 149 plate appearances. The Red Sox went 21-13 in those 34 games. Once the league adjusted to Chavis and started throwing him more high fastballs, he came back down to earth and struggled to the finish line in 2019 with just a .682 OPS over his final 233 plate appearances. An oblique injury kept Chavis off the field for the final month and half of 2019. 

SoxProspects.com peak rank: 1
Baseball America Top 100: #85 in 2018 MLB.com Top 100: #79 in 2018; #79 in 2019

Notable players passed on: Luke Weaver (27)

1 (33) Michael Kopech, RHP, Mount Pleasant HS (Tex.)

Bonus: $1,500,00; Slot Value: $1,678,000

This was a pick the Red Sox received as compensation for losing Jacoby Ellsbury to free agency. The tall, flame-throwing right-hander was used as a major piece along with Yoan Moncada in the deal for Chris Sale in the winter of 2016. Kopech was a strikeout machine for Salem in 2016, punching out 82 in just 52 innings. He debuted for the White Sox in 2018, making four starts before tearing his UCL and wiping out his 2019 season. He was back and ready to pitch in 2020, as he got an inning in spring training, but opted out of the season amid reports of issues in his personal life.

SoxProspects.com peak rank: 5
Baseball America Top 100: #89 in 2016; #32 in 2017; #11 in 2018; #21 in 2019; #33 in 2020 MLB.com Top 100: #16 in 2017; #10 in 2018; #18 in 2019; #20 in 2020

Notable players passed on: Jack Flaherty (34)

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Minor Notes: Sox deal Workman, Hembree for Pivetta, Seabold

Here are Monday's minor league notes:

• The Draft Retrospective series continued this past week, as managing editor James Dunne takes on the 2013 draft. This was a forgettable draft, one of the most disappointing of the SoxProspects.com era. Only four players that were signed made the big leagues, and only one of them has done so in a Boston uniform. 
• Next, Dunne broke the draft down further, diving into a topic that has been discussed for years when it comes to the Red Sox: their ability to draft and develop arms. One of the few bright spots in this draft, Mauricio Dubon, was a nice find by the Sox in the 26th round. On a positive note, a number of players in the class, including Dubon, were dealt for veteran major leaguers, some who would contribute to the 2018 World Series victory. Lastly, Dunne touched on some of the missed opportunities the Sox had in this draft, including a player who would later suit up for a division rival. 
• The Red Sox have already begun to sell off some pieces, as they dealt relievers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree to Philadelphia, who is in desperate need of some bullpen help. In return, Boston received right-handed pitchers Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold. The Red Sox also sent $815,000 to the Phillies and will either send more money or a player to be named later. 

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2013 Draft Retrospective: A well-documented misfire

Thank you for checking in on the newest entry in our draft retrospective series. Tuesday was a pick-by-pick rundown of 2013, while today we will dig a little deeper into a few of the more interesting and prominent draftees. For a quick list and links to player pages, check out our Draft History page.

2013 Draft

Background: 

The disastrous, soul-crushing embarrassment that was the Bobby Valentine era in Boston came to a merciful end after one season. It is hard to take many positives away from that season, but one clear benefit was that for just the second time since the 1967 Impossible Dream season, the Red Sox had a slot in the top 10 picks in the draft. Boston would be drafting seventh overall, the same spot they were in 20 years earlier when they nabbed prep outfielder and football star Christopher Trotman Nixon. Nixon would spend 13 years in the Red Sox organization, appearing in 982 games and finishing with a .278/.366/.478 line and 133 homers. It was also the spot where Hall of Famer Frank Thomas and likely future inductee Clayton Kershaw were taken. 

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2013 Draft Retrospective: The picks

We welcome you to the 2013 edition of the SoxProspects.com Draft Retrospective series. Over the next several weeks, we will revisit each Red Sox draft going back to the start of the SoxProspects.com era. Each retrospective will come in two parts: The first will be a pick-by-pick recap of each selection with very brief comments, including their peak rank on the SoxProspects.com Top 60, as well as some of the notable players the team passed on to make those picks. Players who signed are in bold, those who did not are in italics. Bonus numbers are included where available. 

Coming off the disastrous Bobby Valentine season, the 2013 Red Sox were resurgent in the standings and in the organizational rankings and had a golden opportunity to add to that. The Red Sox were selecting seventh, their highest draft position since 1993, when the team had added stalwart right fielder Trot Nixon. The draft did indeed change the direction of the organization, but not in the way they hoped: Despite using their top two picks and seven of their first ten on pitching, the Red Sox signed more players who started an NFL game at quarterback than started an MLB game on the mound. It was the second consecutive year that the Red Sox failed to come away with any sort of impact prospect, creating an organizational gap that needed to be filled through free agency and trades. 

For a quick list and links to player pages, check out our Draft History page.

1 (7).  Trey Ball, LHP, New Castle HS (Ind.)

Bonus: $2,750,000; Slot: $3,246,000

Boston’s highest draft choice in 20 years came as a surprise, as the team tabbed Ball, a six-foot-six prep lefty. Most outlets had the Red Sox taking outfielder Clint Frazier or third baseman Colin Moran here, but those two came off the board at picks five and six, respectively. Unfortunately, Ball did not pan out and came to symbolize (somewhat unfairly) the organization’s inability to draft and develop pitching. Those issues will be discussed in greater detail in Thursday’s draft analysis, but to put one common misconception to rest, Ball was not seen as a “reach” with the seventh pick: Baseball America had him rated the ninth-best prospect in the draft, while Perfect Game USA had him at 12th. After a bonus of $2.75 million convinced Ball to forgo a commitment to the University of Texas, he was ranked in the Top 100 by both BA and MLB.com heading into the 2014 season. While Ball’s pre-draft status might be misremembered, his on-field struggles were real. The only season in which he posted a sub-4.50 ERA was in a repeat of High A Salem in 2016, when his 3.84 mark was coupled with an underwhelming 1.26 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Improving command and good ground ball rates gave glimmers of hope as he climbed the ladder, but Ball did not advance beyond Double-A. Highly regarded as a position player headed into the draft, he attempted to return to the batter’s box late in 2018, but he went on the injured list after going 2 for 14 in five 2019 contests with an undisclosed injury. He reached minor league free agency at the end of that season and didn't sign with a team. 

SoxProspects.com peak rank: 9

Baseball America Top 100: #89 in 2014

MLB.com Top 100: #96 in 2014

Notable players passed on: Hunter Dozier (8), Austin Meadows (9), Hunter Renfroe (13), Tim Anderson (17), Aaron Judge (32), Sean Manaea (34)

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Minor Notes: Hart debuts and Johnson departs

 Here are Monday's minor league notes:

• 
  On Tuesday, the 10th edition of the Draft Retrospective series came out, taking a look at the pick-by-pick sections by the Red Sox during the 2012 draft. An impressive nine players selected and signed made it to the major leagues. However, none are currently with the Red Sox, and only one selection was ever named one of Baseball America's Top 100 prospects.
• On Thursday, the series broke down the 2012 draft, one that had a lot of potential with the Red Sox having control over three of the first 37 picks. Despite that potential, the draft was largely seen as a disappointment, which was part of the focus of Part 2 of the 2012 Draft Retrospective, producing only 2.8 WAR. It also saw the Red Sox pass on several players who developed into impact players.
• Moving away from the draft, the SoxProspects.com scouting staff updated five scouting reports this past week: left-hander Kyle Hart (pictured above) and four members of the 2019 Lowell Spinners rotation, righties Noah Song, Aldo Ramirez, and Ryan Zeferjahn and lefty Chris Murphy. 
• Hart made his major league debut for the Red Sox on Thursday. Red Sox minor league director Ben Crockett decided to have a little fun with Hart when he broke the good news to him on Wednesday as the Boston Globe's Peter Abraham chronicles.
• The fun did not continue through the end of the start against the Tampa Bay Rays. Hart pitched two innings and struck out four, but he gave up seven hits including two home runs, walked three, and gave up seven runs with five of them earned.
• Hart, a 19th-round pick in 2016, is lined up to make his second start on Wednesday against the Phillies. The Boston Globe's Alex Speier writes that the Red Sox have been reluctant to give a young starter more than one start during his first callup. In fact, Speier notes that that has not happened since 2015. Hart bucking that trend is possibly more a result of desperation than anything for the Red Sox whose starting pitchers have really struggled to begin 2020.
• Speier also discussed how the struggles of the Red Sox go deeper than just the struggle of the major league starters. His dire perspective was that a "case can be made that the organization’s talent base in the big leagues and minors is at a low point since the current owners took over in 2002".
• That is not to say the prospects in the player pool in Pawtucket are without value or potential. The Providence Journal's Bill Koch spoke with coach Bruce Crabbe and veteran catcher Jonathan Lucroy about the prospects down in Pawtucket and there futures.
• 
  As first reported by MassLive.com's Chris Cotillo, one player no longer in Pawtucket is lefty Brian Johnson (pictured, left) who flew home to Florida before eventually being granted his release. Johnson was the last remaining player from the 2012 Red Sox draft with major league experience who was still with the team. Despite the major league rotation struggling, Johnson was not given an opportunity to try and plug any of those holes this year.
• With the cancellation of the minor league season, many prospects are without a summer job and have lost the structure they expected. Kevin Thomas of the Portland Press Herald takes a look at how some of the Red Sox prospects are adapting during this unusual and difficult summer.

Photo Credit: Kyle Hart and Brian Johnson by Kelly O'Connor.

Will Woodward is a Co-Owner and Senior Staff Writer for SoxProspects.com. Follow him on Twitter @SPWill.

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Revisiting the 2012 draft: MLB talent but not impact talent

Thank you for checking in on the newest entry in our draft retrospective series. Yesterday was a pick-by-pick rundown of 2012, while today we will dig a little deeper into a few of the more interesting and prominent draftees. For a quick list and links to player pages, check out our Draft History page.

2012 MLB Draft

Background

The Red Sox were coming off an awful September, one that saw the team go 7-20 in September and miss the playoffs. Two-time World Series-winning manager Terry Francona lost his job as a result, and if that was not bad enough, word came down that longtime GM Theo Epstein was in discussions with the Cubs to become their team President. 

The 2011 draft was a key to the Red Sox future success and, despite some big changes, 2012 was shaping up to be able to provide a similar impact. The Red Sox decided to let Jonathan Papelbon, one of the best closers in the game at the time, leave in free agency, they were certainly placing value on the two picks they would gain as compensation. It seemed as if those would be all the more important in 2012 with the changes in draft rules limiting the advantage of large market teams with equally large pockets to overspend in the draft as the Red Sox did in 2011. The club now possessed three of the top 37 picks and had a bonus pool that was the 10th largest.

While there was certainly some good talent in the draft such as Carlos Correa, David Dahl, Corey Seager, Jose Berrios, Joey Gallo, and Matt Olsen, the quality was a clear step down from the previous year. While the Red Sox ended up splitting up their selections roughly equally between high schoolers (15) and four-year college players (22), with 5 junior college draftees for good measure, they spent eight of their first 10 picks on college players. 2012 was a tough year to be a first-time GM with the draft formatting so dramatically changed, even with a returning amateur scouting director in Amiel Sawdaye, and while Ben Cherington's first go yielded nine players who signed and made the majors, none has had a career WAR higher than 1.3, and as of Monday, none are still in the organization.

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Scouting Report Updates: Thursday's starter, plus Song and the Lowell rotation

The latest SoxProspects scouting report update features Kyle Hart, who is set to make his MLB debut on Thursday at Fenway, as well as a quartet of promising young arms who were part of the Lowell Spinners' talented 2019 rotation and are all ranked in our Top 20.

SoxProspects.com scouting reports are written by our scouting team, led by Director of Scouting Ian Cundall.

Kyle Hart, Left-handed pitcher

Physical Description: Tall, lanky left-handed starter. Minimal remaining projection.

 

Mechanics: Long levers and front-side deception. Clean, balanced mechanics. Confident and composed on the mound. 

 

Fastball: 87-90 mph with natural cut. Can reach back and get his fastball up to 92 mph. Works around the plate, pitches to contact. Average command profile. Was a groundball pitcher early in his career, but groundball rate has dropped significantly and flyball rate almost doubled. Below-average velocity. Potential fringe-average offering.

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2012 Draft Retrospective: The Picks

We welcome you to the 2012 edition of the SoxProspects.com Draft Retrospective series. Over the next several weeks, we will revisit each Red Sox draft going back to the start of the SoxProspects.com era. Each retrospective will come in two parts: The first will be a pick-by-pick recap of each selection with very brief comments, including their peak rank on the SoxProspects.com Top 60, as well as some of the notable players the team passed on to make those picks. Players who signed are in bold, those who did not are in italics. Bonus numbers are included where available.

Coming off a very good draft the year prior, 2012 was a year of change with new draft rules and a new GM. With Theo Epstein gone to the Chicago Cubs, Ben Cherington was promoted to General Manager. 2012 also brought the implementation of signing bonus pools that did not constitute hard caps, but with escalating penalties for money spent past a team's cap (as opposed to the "stern talking to from the Commissioner's Office" non-penalties that had previously existed for going over the suggested slot values for each pick). The overall bonus pools for teams in this first year ranged from $1.7 million up to $12.4 million, with the pool size affected by the number of picks each team had, including the new set of compensation picks based in part on revenue sharing. These new rules, their ramifications, and their impact on strategies will be discussed more in Part Two of the 2012 Draft Retrospective.

The Red Sox pool in 2012 was increased because the Red Sox gained two picks as compensation for the loss of Jonathan Papelbon and did not lose any, giving them the 10th-highest draft pool at $6,884,800. However, that was still significantly lower than the $10,978,700 million the Red Sox had spent in the 2011 draft. It made for an interesting draft where both talent and draft strategy affected picks and drastically reduced the ability of the Red Sox and other big market teams—and, frankly, some small market teams that had started to realize that large investments in the draft were still relatively small compared to investing in MLB free agents—to spend well past MLB's suggested draft slots to bring in more amateur talent.

For a quick list and links to player pages, check out our Draft History page.

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Minor Notes: More background on Song's Naval commitment

Here are Monday's minor league notes:

• The much-anticipated 2011 Draft Retrospective was posted last week, with all 53 picks documented in one post and an in-depth look at that draft and it's impact on the big league team in a second post. It's not often that you can easily look at a draft and say that it led to a World Series, but this draft is one of the few exceptions. 

• On the most recent episode of the SoxProspects.com Podcast, Chris and Ian talk about what they have seen from the games that have been streamed from the Alternate Training Site in Pawtucket, and which players have caught their eye. They also answer reader questions and talk about the surprising struggles from some of the players in Boston.

• Rob Terranova of MILB.com posted an article with great insight into Noah Song's (pictured, above) Naval commitment. Terranova talked with Stephen Moore, who was a 10th round pick by the Braves in 2015 out of the U.S. Naval Academy. Moore's focus was also in Aviation, and he is now a lieutenant, so he is as equipped to talk about Song's dual commitments as anyone, having gone through the same thing himself.

• With Ryan Weber being ineffective in his few starts this year in Boston, the team optioned him to the Alternate Training Site and recalled Dylan Covey.

• The newest addition to the Player Pool was Seth Blair, a right-handed reliever who may be most famous for building a "Field of Dreams" style training facility in his backyard during COVID-19 which 15 pro prospects attended at various times. To make room for Blair the team released John Andreoli.

• With rosters decreasing to 28 last week, the Red Sox optioned Matt Hall and Chris Mazza to the Alternate Training Site

• On The Athletic, Jen McCaffrey took a deep-dive on what the Red Sox lineup may look like in 2025. As you can see, once you get past 2022 the team could look drastically different than it does now.

• With the minor league baseball season cancelled, some players are looking for creative ways to get their repetitions in. Brendan Cellucci, Boston's 12th-round pick last year, is playing for the Alpha Athletics Juice Pigs, a team comprised mostly of college players. Cellucci talked with Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com about the experience. 

• Luis Alexander Basabe, who was traded along with Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech for Chris Sale, was designated for assignment and traded from the White Sox to the Giants last week. 

Photo Credit: Noah Song by Kelly O'Connor

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Podcast Ep. #188 - Getting to see the prospects

Two weeks in, and we still have MLB games! And thanks to the PawSox streaming simulated games from McCoy Stadium, we even get to see the prospects. We have a lot to talk about for both the big league club as well as the action down in Pawtucket. Chris and Ian leadoff with pitching talk. In particular, they go in depth on what happens when a club loses half of its top eight pitchers. Following that, they break down concerns with the lineup. Ian wonders when Bobby Dalbec joins the 28-man roster. Then Chris and Ian break down what’s happening at Pawtucket. And we conclude with an abundance of your always great emails.

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Revisiting the 2011 draft: Theo Epstein's magnum (draft) opus

Thank you for checking in on the newest entry in our draft retrospective series. Yesterday was a pick-by-pick rundown of 2011, while today we will dig a little deeper into a few of the more interesting and prominent draftees. For a quick list and links to player pages, check out our Draft History page.

2011 MLB Draft

Background

As was the case throughout the Theo Epstein-era, the Red Sox set themselves up to procure at least a few major leaguers from this draft. The Red Sox turned a season-and-a-half of Victor Martinez and one season of Adrian Beltre into picks 19, 26, 36, and 40. The one move that looks even worse in hindsight is giving the 24th pick to the Rays as compensation for Carl Crawford, but knowing he had four extra picks in his pocket helped ease the pain for Epstein. It's never a bad thing to have four picks in the top 40, but in 2011 it was more important than ever. 

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2011 Draft Retrospective: The picks

We welcome you to the 2011 edition of the SoxProspects.com Draft Retrospective series. Over the next several weeks, we will revisit each Red Sox draft going back to the start of the SoxProspects.com era. Each retrospective will come in two parts: The first will be a pick-by-pick recap of each selection with very brief comments, including their peak rank on the SoxProspects.com Top 60, as well as some of the notable players the team passed on to make those picks. Players who signed are in bold, those who did not are in italics. Bonus numbers are included where available.

Fans did not know it at the time, but the 2011 draft was the end of an era. In November 2011, Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association announced a new collective bargaining agreement that changed the draft landscape for the foreseeable future. Starting in 2012, teams would be subject to a bonus pool that was determined by draft position and number of picks, with severe penalties if a team exceeded their pool by any significant amount. The 2011 draft was Boston's last chance to flex its financial muscle.

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Weekly Notes: Draft retrospective series continues, Mata impresses

Here are Monday's minor league notes:

• Over the past couple of weeks, the SoxProspects.com team has broken down and reflected on the drafts from 2008, 2009, and 2010. Check out each year's "The Picks" post, which includes a pick-by-pick recap of each player taken. The Sox drafted 52 players in 2008, 50 in 2009, and another 52 in 2010. The most notable players selected in these three years were Brandon Workman, who is the big league team's current closer, and Christian Vazquez, who is following up his great 2019 season with a hot start to 2020.
• The second part of the Draft Retrospective series is a more in-depth analysis of each draft. The 2008 piece focused on the lack of MLB production from the players the team drafted and signed that year, as well as a look at the team's decision to take six catchers in this draft. The Sox also used a handful of players in this draft to trade for major league players. The 2009 portion highlighted Jason McLeod's final draft as the team's Scouting Director. It also highlighted the lack of talent this draft had, as only three selections in this draft even made it into the SoxProspects.com's Top 10. The 2010 draft was the first for Amiel Sawdaye as Scouting Director, and the team ended up missing out on some terrific players, as the 2010 draft was loaded with talent. 

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