Q&A with Baseball America's Jim Callis

Baseball America's Jim Callis recently took the time to share his thoughts on the Red Sox farm system with SoxProspects.com's Jonathan Singer. Callis is the Executive Editor at Baseball America, who also was a contributor towards the 2009 Prospect Handbook and ESPN's 2008 draft coverage.

JS: Coming into the 2009 season, who do see as the biggest sleepers and who do you expect to disappoint? Why?

JC: Will Middlebrooks might be the biggest sleeper. Red Sox fans know who he is, obviously, as he was a high-profile draftee, but he really made some nice adjustments in the second half of the NY-Penn season and I think he could have a very solid year while also playing a nice third base. The college pitchers Boston drafted early last year (Bryan Price, Kyle Weiland, Stephen Fife) got overshadowed by the younger, high-ceiling talent in the system, but I bet one or two of them moves quickly in 2009. Disappointments? The biggest combination how high I ranked a guy on our Top 30 and my lack of love for him is probably Daniel Bard at No. 4. I'm still not sold on anything but the fastball, and I think anyone who expects him to be more than a seventh-inning guy could be disappointed.

JS: At what level do you expect Bryan Price, Stephen Fife, and Kyle Weiland to start the season? Out of the three, who do you feel has the best long-term chance of sticking as a starting pitcher?

JC: I could see Weiland starting the year in high Class A, with Price and Fife in low Class A with a chance for a midseason promotion. The Red Sox are intrigued by all three as starters, though Price and Weiland pitched more as relievers in college. Weiland has the best long-term shot of being as starter, because he has the best three-pitch mix and command. However, he didn't have a lot of success in that role at Notre Dame, and Boston may be tempted to push him quickly as a reliever.

JS: Oscar Tejeda seemed to hold his own as an 18 year old in A-ball last season. What are your thoughts on him? Do you think his tools will start to show themselves in his performance in the near future?

JC: Tejeda's year was very solid considering all the physical problems he dealt with (heart surgery, staph infections). He's still very young for his level -- he turned 19 in late December -- and still is a long ways from his physical and developmental peak. The Red Sox know what they have in him, and that he'll need plenty of time to develop. I wouldn't expect a big statistical year from him in 2009, and he may open the season back in low Class A.

JS: Which catchers in the system have a shot at being starters at the major league level?

JC: The only one right now that has much of a chance is Luis Exposito, and I'd like to see him repeat his 2008 performance before I get too excited. He also has work to do defensively. Mark Wagner, Dusty Brown, George Kottaras, Tim Federowicz and whoever else you want to mention, they all look like backups to me, especially on a perennial contender like the Red Sox.

JS: Do you think either Argenis Diaz or Yamaico Navarro could nose out Jed Lowrie as the "shortstop of the future"? Do you see all three as potential major league starters? Who has the highest ceiling?

JC: They could, sure, though I still like Lowrie the best of the three. Navarro had one of the more surprising years in the system last year, though some of that may have been fueled by Lancaster. He's not a switch-hitter, but he's quite similar to Lowrie in that he's an offensive-minded shortstop with solid defense and the ability to play multiple positions. Diaz is easily the best defender of the three, but his bat lags behind them. He has hit for average the last two years, but with not much power or walks. Lowrie has the highest ceiling. I'd take him over Navarro because he's proven himself at much higher levels and is a switch-hitter.

JS: What are your thoughts on Kris Johnson, who struggled for two months in Portland and then seemingly found his stride (83.1 IP, 82 H, 71/33 K/BB, 3 HRA)? Is his future in the bullpen or as a back-of-the-rotation starter in the majors?

JC: With the Red Sox, more realistically as a middle reliever, because they have better starting candidates. But for a lesser team, I could see him in the rotation, and he could thrust himself into Boston's mix if the curveball he had before Tommy John surgery comes back. His fastball and changeup are slightly above-average, he keeps the ball down, and he's left-handed, so there's some talent to work with there.

JS: In your opinion, what is Richie Lentz's (112 Ks in 77.1 IP in 2008, .195 BAA) ceiling? How would you compare his ceiling to that of Daniel Bard (107 Ks in 77.2 IP in 2008, .158 BAA)?

JC: Great year for Lentz, but as with Exposito, I want to see him do it again before I get really excited. He still needs to throw a lot more strikes, work inside to left-handers and show a tighter and more consistent slider. Bard has more velocity and more sink, as well as a better frame and medical history, so he's definitely the better prospect. They have similar ceilings, but Bard's is a little higher and he has a better chance of reaching his.

JS: What are your thoughts on Brock Huntzinger, who dominated in Lowell (5-0, 0.64 era) but struggled in Greenville (2-3, 7.09 ERA)? What is his ceiling?

JC: Huntzinger's home run numbers at Greenville (12 in 27 innings) were stunning, which was a result of losing his command at the end of the season. But I like him. He's just 20 and he's got a strong frame in the Michael Bowden mold. He has a good fastball, but like most young pitchers, is still working on refining his secondary pitches. If it all comes together, he could be a No. 3 starter, but he's a long way from that right now.

JS: What is Junichi Tazawa's timeline? Do you think having the major league deal will put pressure on him to develop faster than might be ideal?

JC: I don't think the major league contract will add a lot of pressure because it's not like the Red Sox are anxiously awaiting him. They also have seen what has happened when they rushed some relievers in recent years, such as Cla Meredith and Craig Hansen. I think they'll let Tazawa develop at his own pace. That said, he could move very quickly based on talent alone. I've talked to other teams who think he could make for a solid No. 3 starter, but it could be easier for him to break into Boston's bullpen. He has the stuff to start, and his clean delivery and strong body make up for his lack of size.

JS: In the Prospect Handbook you noted that Will Middlebrooks posted a .305/.352/.475 line in the final seven weeks of the season after a disappointing start in Lowell. Was this a turning point for him that can springboard him to greater success in 2009, or do you see him coming back down from that a bit?

JC: I do think it was a springboard for future success. He got off to a horrible start (.187/.227/.231 in the first month), and the Red Sox got on him to change his approach and snap out of it. He was able to do so--unlike Ryan Dent--and started working counts and looking for specific pitches in specific zones when he got ahead of hitters. I don't know if it's realistic to expect him to hit .305/.352/.475 this year in low Class A, but I could see .280/.340/.450 being realistic.

JS: There was a lot of hype for Ryan Kalish before he broke his hamate bone. Reports indicated that he was not driving the ball last year; was that a function of his wrist and something you think he will improve in the future? Will we see Ryan break out this season?

JC: It sounds like that was related to the wrist, as he didn't seem to turn his swing loose like he had in the past. That shouldn't be a long-term problem. As he gets healthier and more confident in the wrist, he should be able to get his swing back and drive more balls. I don't think he'll ever be a big power hitter, as he's more of a guy who should hit for average with 15-20 homers per year. I think he'll be better this year and get back on track.

JS: Anthony Rizzo missed all last season except for 83 at-bats due to Hodgkin's Lymphoma and lost significant development time. Do you think he can get back on track quickly or will this set him back significantly? What kind of player can he become?

JC: It's hard to say how quickly he'll get back on track, though Jon Lester exceeded expectations. It comes down to how much strength and timing Rizzo lost. I think getting him on the field and cancer-free this season will be a victory, and his performance is more of a bonus, if that makes sense. The Red Sox saw some flashes of Lars Anderson in Rizzo, as he has a good approach and power to the opposite field. They won't need to rush him with Anderson so far ahead of him, but he can be pretty good.

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