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September 9, 2025 at 3:59 PM

Transaction Analysis: Connelly Early Gets the Call


Early Tuesday morning, Foul Territory TV reported that Red Sox left-hander Connelly Early would be joining the Red Sox to start in place of the injured Dustin May on Tuesday night in Sacramento. Early is currently the eighth-ranked prospect in the SoxProspects rankings, but he is set to rise, likely up to sixth, in our next rankings update in a couple weeks. This promotion culminates a very impressive year from Early, who impressed in both Portland and Worcester and is coming off arguably his best start of the season on September 2, when he threw 6 innings, allowing 3 hits and 1 run while striking out 10 and walking none. 

Below is a full scouting report with what to expect heading into Early's major league debut. For a more detailed breakdown, check out the last two episodes of the SoxProspects Podcast from August 11 and August 24, and video from his outings on 8/8/25 and 8/21/25. 

How acquired: 2023 Draft, 5th round, 151st overall
Bonus: $408,500
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 195 pounds
2025 season (21 games between Portland and Worcester): 100.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 31.9% K, 9.7% BB.

Physical Description: Tall, athletic frame with some remaining projection. Long limbs, has room to add muscle. Quick feet.

Mechanics: Throws from a low three-quarters arm slot. Starts on the first-base side of the rubber. Some effort in delivery, but repeats it well. High leg kick. Long swing back and arm is quick coming forward. Low release height. Consistent release point. Lands balanced and on-line to the plate. Plus extension. Very good pickoff move to first base.
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August 28, 2025 at 8:08 PM

Transaction Analysis: Payton Tolle Gets the Call!


Early Thursday evening, the Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported that Red Sox left-hander Payton Tolle, the current top prospect in the SoxProspects rankings, will be called up to make his major league debut on Friday against Pirates ace Paul Skenes. It has been a meteoric rise this year for Tolle, who started the season with Greenville and finds himself set to make his major league debut just 13 months after he signed. Here's a full scouting report and what to expect heading into his major league debut. For a more detailed breakdown, also check out the last two episodes of the SoxProspects Podcast from August 11th and August 24th, and video from his outings on 8/10/25 and 8/22/25 on the SoxProspects Twitter. 

How acquired: 2024 Draft, 50th overall
Bonus: $2,000,000
Height: 6-foot-6
Weight: 250 pounds
2025 season (20 games between Greenville, Portland and Worcester): 91.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 133 K, 23 BB

Physical Description: Huge frame with no remaining projection. Looks all of his listed height and weight. Proportional for his size and surprisingly athletic.

Mechanics: Throws from a low three-quarters arm slot starting on the first base side of the rubber. Compact delivery that he repeats well even though it has effort. High leg kick. Really drives off his back side and gets elite extension (7.4 feet or more). Has a low release height. Arm action works, but has a slight stab behind. Comes across his body. Deceptive delivery in large part due to how close to the plate he releases the ball. Extremely difficult to pick up.
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June 16, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Trade Analysis: Initial scouting reports for James Tibbs and Jose Bello


Early Sunday evening, word started to go around that the Red Sox had dealt designated hitter Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants in return for two major league pitchers, Jordan Hicks and Kyle Harrison, and two prospects, outfielder James Tibbs and right-hander Jose Bello. Here are our initial scouting reports for Tibbs and Bello. Please note, these will be updated with a more complete scouting report once we have seen the players in action. 

James Tibbs, OF, High-A Northwest League 
Age: 22
Started: 2024 1st round, 13th overall
Projected initial rank: 6-8
Scouting Report
Physical Description: Medium frame. Well developed lower half. Minimal remaining projection.

Hit: Starts square and vertical with his hands high. Utilizes a leg kick timing device. Quick hands and solid bat speed. Patient approach and makes good swing decisions. Low chase rate and makes consistent contact in the zone. Sees a lot of pitches and will take a walk. Runs an above-average hard-hit rate. Better against fastballs than secondary offerings, but has shown the ability to make adjustments against off-speed and spin already. Whiff rates tick up against velocity. Groundball rate has been higher in pro ball than it was as an amateur and bears watching as he moves into the high minors. Has hit lefties well in a small sample in the low minors, but struggled at times against them as an amateur. 

Power: Above-average raw power. Power plays best on pitches middle-in to the pull side, Produces solid exit velocities. Grooved swing with a slight uppercut lends itself to driving the ball with back spin. 

Run: Below-average speed. Not a major part of his game.

Field: Corner outfield-only profile. Likely best suited for left field given the complexities of playing right field  at Fenway Park. Has only played right field in pro ball, but did play left and first base in college.

Arm: Average arm strength. Solid enough for corner outfield. 
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April 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: Justin Gonzales, Jojo Ingrassia and Enddy Azocar


While updating our scouting reports is a year-round endeavor, our trip to Spring Training provides us with one-stop access to watch players from all levels of the system, including our first chances to see players who have yet to head out to a full-season affiliate. After getting this extended sample and talking to numerous trusted sources, we come back with a wealth of information from which we make substantial updates to our scouting reports. After spending the past few weeks making a ton of updates to our player pages, cataloged as always in our Scouting Log, we wanted to highlight some of the most noteworthy here on the News Page. Today, we look at some players who made substantial jumps in our season-opening rankings update based on what we learned from camp.  

Current ranking: 20th

Physical Description: Extra-large frame that really stands out. Already looks substantially taller than his listed 6-foot-4 and correspondingly heavier than his listed 210 pounds. Not much projection remaining. Will need to work on maintaining his physique simply because of how big he is.

Hit: Starts open in a slight crouch. Pronounced leg kick and weight transfer. Good separation in swing. Long stride. Really gets his whole body into his swing and clears his hips before whipping the bat through the zone. Quick bat; shorter swing and will show solid barrel control, particularly for someone his size. Surprisingly advanced approach for his age. Very aggressive hunting fastballs early in counts. Has pretty good knowledge of the strike zone, but is still learning to recognize secondary pitches, especially spin. High variance hit-tool given he has yet to debut stateside. Potential below-average hit tool.
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April 18, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: Payton Tolle, Brady Tygart and Blake Aita


While updating our scouting reports is a year-round endeavor, our trip to Spring Training provides us with one-stop access to watch players from all levels of the system, including our first chances to see players who have yet to head out to a full-season affiliate. After getting this extended sample and talking to numerous trusted sources, we come back with a wealth of information from which we make substantial updates to our scouting reports. After spending the past few weeks making a ton of updates to our player pages, cataloged as always in our Scouting Log, we wanted to highlight some of the most noteworthy here on the News Page. Today, we look at some players who made substantial jumps in our season-opening rankings update based on what we learned from camp. 

Current ranking: 13th

Physical Description: Huge frame with minimal remaining projection. Looks all of listed height and weight.

Mechanics: Throws from a low three-quarters arm slot. High leg kick. Really drives off his back side and gets elite extension (7.4 feet or more). Has a very low release height. Arm action works, but has a slight stab behind. Very deceptive delivery in large part due to how close to the plate he releases the ball.

Fastball: 93-95 mph, tops out at 96 mph. Pitch has life up and both vertical and horizontal movement. Has shown premium bat-missing ability, even when used almost three-quarters of the time in college. Pitch plays well above its velocity. Command is a work in progress and control is only average. Has the traits that make you think he could gain velocity on his fastball in pro ball. Potential plus-to-better offering.
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April 16, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: Mikey Romero, Juan Valera and Brandon Clarke


While updating our scouting reports is a year-round endeavor, our trip to Spring Training provides us with one-stop access to watch players from all levels of the system, including our first chances to see players who have yet to head out to a full-season affiliate. After getting this extended sample and talking to numerous trusted sources, we come back with a wealth of information from which we make substantial updates to our scouting reports. After spending the past few weeks making a ton of updates to our player pages, cataloged as always in our Scouting Log, we wanted to highlight some of the most noteworthy here on the News Page. Today, we look at some players who made substantial jumps in our season-opening rankings update based on what we learned from camp.

Current ranking: 6th
Prior ranking: 13th

Physical Description: Athletic frame with some remaining projection. Has filled out some since he signed, but looked particularly more physical in camp in 2025 after his first normal offseason, with a more filled-out lower half and stronger upper body.

Hit: Starts square with his hands high. Smooth, controlled swing. Solid-average bat speed. Limited stride. Quick hands. Makes solid contact, especially against right-handed pitchers. Struggles against left-handed pitching. Aggressive approach. Hunts fastballs early in the count and has the tendency to expand against secondary pitches, especially changeups. Needs to tighten up his chase rate and make more contact on pitches in the zone. Potential average hit tool.

Power: Showed sneaky power for his size prior to 2025, and added strength entering this season looks like it could lead to further improvement to his all-fields power. Can elevate the ball and drive it, especially to the pull side. Solid-average raw power. Average game power.
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March 20, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Notes from the Field: Scouting the Pitchers in the Spring Showcase Games


The Spring Breakout event is one of the best ideas to showcase the game's next wave of stars MLB has done in years. This spring, the Red Sox roster was seen as one of the best in the league with the Big Three of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer anchoring the lineup, with a strong group of arms including Hunter Dobbins, David Sandlin, Connelly Early adding intrigue. Making things even more interesting, after traveling to Port Charlotte to play the Rays in MLB's event on Thursday evening, the Red Sox arranged to play a second prospect showcase game, the "Futures at Fenway South," with the majority of the Spring Breakout roster on Friday at home against the Twins. This allowed for an even better look at many of the hitters and a chance to see even more of the talented arms in the Red Sox system. Here are my thoughts on some pitchers from the two-game look and for more thoughts on some hitters check out yesterday's piece.

- Of all the pitchers the Red Sox used across the two showcase games, the most impressive was 18-year-old Juan Valera. Valera burst onto the scene last year showing mid-90s velocity, but was on the raw side. Based on this look, while he is currently ranked 19th in our prospect rankings, when we do our preseason update, he will definitely be rising. Valera showdd a four-pitch arsenal, with his velocity up across the board. His fastball sat 97-99 mph and hit 100 multiple times. He mixed in two breaking balls: a slider at 89-92 mph and sweeper at 86-88 mph. He also showed in a changeup at 91-94 mph. The 94 mph changeup was perfectly captured by Baseball America's Josh Norris and, as you can see, it has a ridiculous amount of horizontal movement for a pitch thrown so hard. Valera's arm is so quick it can get a bit out of sync and cause him to lose the zone, as was the case in his third inning, but for the first two he was absolutely dominant. 
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March 18, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Notes from the Field: Scouting the Hitters in the Spring Showcase Games


The Spring Breakout event is one of the best ideas to showcase the game's next wave of stars MLB has done in years. This spring, the Red Sox roster was seen as one of the best in the league with the Big Three of Roman Anthony (pictured, right), Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer anchoring the lineup, with a strong group of arms including Hunter Dobbins, David Sandlin, Connelly Early adding intrigue. Making things even more interesting, after traveling to Port Charlotte to play the Rays in MLB's event on Thursday evening, the Red Sox arranged to play a second prospect showcase game, the "Futures at Fenway South," with the majority of the Spring Breakout roster on Friday at home against the Twins. This allowed for an even better look at many of the hitters and a chance to see even more of the talented arms in the Red Sox system. Here are my thoughts on some hitters from the two-game look. 

- There were several incredible moments in Thursday's Breakout game, but none stood out more than Roman Anthony's home run. In his third at-bat, Anthony went up against Rays pitching prospect Santiago Suarez (ranked seventh overall in the strong Tampa system by Baseball America and ninth overall by MLB Pipeline). After a couple of takes, Anthony got a 96.7 mph fastball up and on the inner half of the zone and absolutely demolished it, sending it 435 feet out to right field (a number that seems conservative, as both me and Chris thought it completely left the ballpark) with an exit velocity of 111 mph. The ease with which Anthony accesses his power is remarkable, and the way he fired his hips and was able to clear that fastball out were remarkable. He is the consensus top prospect in baseball (taking Roki Sasaki out of the equation) and this swing showed why. 
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December 11, 2024 at 10:55 PM

Trade Analysis: Scouting the prospects dealt for Garrett Crochet


On Wednesday afternoon, the Red Sox finally secured the high-end starting pitcher they have been after for years, acquiring 25-year-old left-handed starter Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for a package of four prospects: catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Braden Montgomery, infielder Chase Meidroth, and right-handed pitcher Wikelman Gonzalez. Crochet is coming off an All-Star season during which he had a 3.58 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 146 innings with 209 strikeouts to 33 walks. He is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make roughly $2.9 million next year in his second year of arbitration. The 146 innings was more than he had thrown in his prior three MLB seasons combined, which were marked by a variety of injuries including Tommy John surgery in 2022 and shoulder inflammation in 2023, and during which he worked out of the bullpen. Still, his stuff, when healthy, is electric, and he finally showed what he is capable of in a starter's role in 2024. 

To acquire Crochet, the Red Sox gave up quite the trade package, sending four prospects in their (very strong) top 20 as ranked here by SoxProspects. Here is a look at the former Red Sox farmhands changing the color of their hosiery today: 

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May 1, 2023 at 12:00 PM

Notes from the Field: Mata, Murphy, and Walter at Lehigh Valley


This past week, I got a close-up look at a few games that Worcester played against the IronPigs in the Lehigh Valley. I was focused on watching three of the top arms in the system in Bryan Mata, Chris Murphy, and Brandon Walter, and was able to see each make a start. 

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4/18 @ Lehigh Valley: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 6 K
 
First up is Bryan Mata, who had the misfortune of drawing a very cold night in Pennsylvania. The outing did not start out well, as he fell behind hitters early with each of the first three batters beginning with a 2-0 count. His misses were consistently to the glove side, pulling multiple pitches into the dirt. The contact early on in this outing was also hard, despite finding gloves. Over the first five hitters he faced, he allowed line outs to shortstop and third base, as well as a hard line out to right field. 
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April 27, 2023 at 10:00 AM

Notes from the Field: Emptying the Spring Training notebook


In the middle of March, the SoxProspects.com Brass made our annual trip to Spring Training to catch the action on the back fields in minor league camp. I was able to spend a full week in Fort Myers this year, and as a result I was able to see more players than ever before. Today I’ll focus on some deeper names to watch out for this year.

One new name to keep on eye this year is right-handed reliever Christopher Troye. The Red Sox selected Troye in the 12th round of the 2021 draft, but he only threw 33 1/3 innings last year after missing the beginning of the season due to injury. He struck out 50 hitters last year, but also walked 24. In a live batting practice situation, he was around the zone and showed overpowering stuff. Troye has a big pitcher’s frame, listed at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds. He throws over the top and has deception in his delivery. His fastball worked 95-97 mph and he mixed in a high-spin breaking ball at 83-84 mph with 11-to-5 shape and a shorter, more horizontal cutter (which could have been a slider) at 88 mph. 

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Right-hander Bradley Blalock is still in the process of rehabbing from Tommy John surgery last spring, but just over one year after his surgery, he was back on the mound throwing live batting practice, and his stuff looked good. He was 91-93 mph with his fastball and topped out at 94. He also showed all of his secondary pitches, which included a splitter at 84-86 mph with late drop, a slider at 82-84 mph and a curveball at 78 mph. The splitter especially was interesting, flashing above-average potential, and was significantly better than the changeup he showed prior to his surgery. Blalock will start the season in extended spring training, but the team hopes he might be ready to return in May. 
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April 26, 2023 at 10:00 AM

Notes from the Field: Luis Perales and Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz


In the middle of March, the SoxProspects.com Brass made our annual trip to Spring Training to catch the action on the back fields in minor league camp. I was able to spend a full week in Fort Myers this year, and as a result I was able to see more players than ever before. Today I’ll focus on a pair of pitchers who scouts were very impressed with this spring.

The one pitcher I was most interested to see in minor league spring training this year was 19-year old Venezuelan right-hander Luis Perales. Perales was one of the arms I had yet to see live since he signed, but the reports I got on him last year were outstanding. Scouts identified him as one of the best pitchers in the Florida Complex League, and after seeing him live for the first time, I can understand why. 

Perales does not have your prototypical pitcher’s size, listed at 6-foot-1, 160 pounds. He has definitely added strength already and is heavier than his listed weight, but he still has some room to add additional size as he physically matures. He throws from a high three-quarters arm slot and has a short arm action. His arm is very quick, and he hides the ball well, so hitters have a tough time picking him up.

In the outing I saw, Perales’ fastball velocity was not in mid-season form, but he still sat 94-97 mph and showed bat-missing ability with it up in the zone. The pitch has significant induced vertical break (the difference between the height of the pitch if it had no spin versus the height of the pitch with the spin induced by the pitcher), posting the second-highest average in the system last year, and as a result shows the sort of ride up in the zone teams look for. He complimented his fastball with two secondary pitches that each flashed at least above-average. His changeup came in 85-88 mph with late fade most of the time, but occasionally some cut as well. He also snapped off some impressive curveballs at 82-84 mph with sharp, 11-to-5 break. The pitch had solid depth, and he showed the ability both to land it in the zone and to bury it down and out of the zone when looking to put a hitter away. 
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April 10, 2023 at 9:00 AM

Notes from the Field: Bryan Mata and Brandon Walter


In the middle of March, the SoxProspects.com Brass made our annual trip to Spring Training to catch the action on the back fields in minor league camp. I was able to spend a full week in Fort Myers this year, and as a result I was able to see more players than ever before. Today, we’ll focus on the top two pitchers in our rankings heading into our trip to Fort Myers.

The top pitcher in the SoxProspects rankings, right-hander Bryan Mata, is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and had been optioned to minor league camp in time for us to see him on the back fields. While Mata’s velocity is back, his command and control are still a work in progress. His fastball sat 95-97 mph and he touched 98 mph, but it was very hittable when in the zone in this outing. Mata’s four-seam fastball lacks movement and is very straight, so his command needs to be there for that pitch to be successful. It is better to the arm side at this point, and in this outing, he had the tendency to cut off his delivery and yank the pitch to the glove side. 

Mata also showed all three of his secondary pitches: slider, changeup and curveball. He got whiffs with all of them, though all were inconsistent. His slider was his primary out pitch at 87-89 mph, but he struggled to find his release point with it, often holding it too long and yanking it glove-side. His changeup was a little more impressive in this one, flashing late dive down and away from a left-handed hitter’s bat, and he actually snapped off a few decent curveballs, including one that he got a whiff on from Twins shortstop Carlos Correa—who was hitting every inning while rehabbing in this one, as were Alex Kiriloff and Byron Buxton, making things a bit harder on Mata. His curveball has long, vertical break and flashed average potential. At the end of the day, spring training is all about building towards the regular season, and in flashes, Mata showed why he is so highly regarded. It is still unclear if he is a starter long-term, but with the arsenal he has, he could be very effective in a multi-inning bridge role at some point this year. 
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April 7, 2023 at 9:00 AM

Notes from the Field: Dalton Rogers, Noah Dean, Nathan Landry and Alex Hoppe


In the middle of March, the SoxProspects.com Brass made our annual trip to Spring Training to catch the action on the back fields in minor league camp. I was able to spend a full week in Fort Myers this year, and as a result I was able to see more players than ever before. Over the next few articles, I’ll break down some of the players who intrigued me down there, starting with some recently drafted pitchers. 

The highest drafted pitcher in the Red Sox 2022 draft class having been selected in the third round out of Southern Mississippi, where he worked exclusively in relief in his one season playing for the Golden Eagles, left-hander Dalton Rogers only threw one inning in game action while I was down there, but he showed off a polished arsenal that should get him to at least Double-A Portland in pretty short order. Rogers is undersized, listed at 5-foot-11, 175 pounds, with minimal remaining physical projection. He has a deceptive delivery, and his 92-94 mph fastball plays above that velocity. It is tough to pick up and has good shape, allowing it to play up when he locates it up in the zone. He got four swinging strikes with the pitch in his inning of work, two each from right- and left-handed hitters. For his secondary pitches, he showed an 82-mph slider with long, sweepy, 2-to-8 shape and an inconsistent changeup at 85-86 mph. 

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March 10, 2023 at 8:00 AM

2023 Countdown to Spring Training: Mikey Romero and Bryan Mata


We've made it through the bulk of the offseason and spring training is here! To celebrate the return of baseball, we'll be counting down by posting our scouting reports for the players on our Top 60 three times a week from February 13 until March 15—not coincidentally, the same day the SoxProspects brass arrive in Fort Myers for the start of games in minor league camp. 

#7 Mikey Romero, SS 
2022 Teams: FCL and Salem
Final Stats: 87 PA, .304/.368/.506, 11 XBH, 9.2 BB%, 17.2 K%
2023 Projected Level: Salem

Scouting Report 
Physical Description: Athletic frame with some remaining projection. Not overly physical and could stand to add strength and fill out.

Hit: Starts slightly open with his hands high. Very smooth and controlled swing. Has bat speed. Limited stride. Really good hands. Seen as one of the most advanced high school hitters in the draft class. Good pitch recognition and advanced approach for his age. Makes a lot of contact and hits the ball hard. Potential above-average hit tool.

Power: Wide range of opinions on his power ability. Needs to add strength and swing right now is designed more for hard line drives than over-the-fence power. Potential fringe-average game power.
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November 15, 2022 at 4:45 PM

Scouting Scratch: Red Sox 2022 Rule 5 Preview


By 6:00 p.m. tonight, the Red Sox must decide which prospects to add to their 40-man roster to protect them from selection in the Rule 5 Draft, which is scheduled for December 7.

Currently, the 40-man roster is at 37 players, and if necessary, players such as Caleb Hamilton, Yu Chang, and Jake Reed can be removed from the roster in order to create more space. The Red Sox also have to make non-tender decisions by Friday, so if they know they are non-tendering someone like Franchy Cordero, Ryan Brasier, or Josh Taylor, for example, they could choose to open a spot by making that move today. 

Here is a short list of players who are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft and one man's opinion regarding their likelihood of being added to the roster.
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June 10, 2022 at 12:30 PM

Scouting Scratch: Breaking down Brayan Bello


Over the last few weeks, I’ve had a chance to see all of the ranked members of the Worcester and Portland rotations, save for Connor Seabold given he has been on the injured list. Here's my break down of the top pitching prospect in the system, right-hander Brayan Bello. 

23-year-old right-hander Brayan Bello has been one of the most impressive pitchers in the minor leagues this year, rising recently to number 49 on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list, and he recently earned a promotion to Worcester, putting him on the brink of the big leagues. In 56 innings, he has allowed only 35 hits and 15 earned runs, while striking out 76 and walking only 21. He has three starts with 10 strikeouts and a seven-inning no-hitter on his ledger already, and his swinging strike rate of 18.3% is 19th in all of minor league baseball of pitchers with at least 30 innings. 

Bello has an average frame and has filled out considerably since he signed. He now has a well-proportioned frame and sturdy lower half, but has maintained his athleticism and does a good job repeating his delivery. He throws from a three-quarters arm slot and has a very quick arm. His fastball has sat 95-97 both times I’ve seen him this year), topping out at 98. He generates easy velocity and can hold it, still hitting 97 in the fifth and sixth innings of recent outings. Bello will show both four-seam and two-seam variations, with the four-seam in the upper portion of that velocity range and two-seam coming in at 95-96 mph usually. The four-seam fastball is on the straight side and will show some bat-missing ability when he commands it up in the zone. His two-seam shows hard, late sink down and in on a right-handed hitter and is a pitch he really has made strides with this year.  
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May 17, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Notes from the Field: Ceddanne Rafaela, Alex Binelas, Nick Yorke and more from Greenville


The first month of the minor league season is wrapping up, and SoxProspects.com Scouting Correspondent Chris Clegg has checked out five Greenville Drive home games to get live looks at some of the talent on display. The Drive have a stacked lineup, and that’s where our focus will be today. There is plenty to discuss with the emergence of Ceddanne Rafaela, Matthew Lugo, and others. Let’s dive into the players. 

Ceddanne Rafaela has been everyone’s favorite breakout prospect this year. Rafaela has seen a power outburst to the tune of 7 home runs in 145 plate appearances after hitting just 10 all of last season, and he is showcasing a good feel to hit. One of the biggest reasons for Rafaela’s power outbreak is not because he is hitting the ball significantly harder, but rather, he is pulling fly balls more effectively, leading to more home runs. His pull rate is up six percentage points from last season, and his fly ball rate is up more than 13 percentage points. I do not think we are looking at a colossal power outbreak from Rafaela, but he may have seasons where he hits 20 home runs.

Rafaela is extremely quick. I clocked him at 4.1 seconds from home to first, which is borderline 70 grade. He has stolen seven bases in nine attempts this season and shows good jumps and improved instinct to steal bases. 

While Rafaela’s bat has been fun to watch progress, there is an argument he is the best fielder in the Red Sox system. He is likely to play center field and has focused exclusively on that position and shortstop so far this season, but his versatility makes him a plus fielder at all three outfield positions, shortstop, second and third base. Rafaela has an easy plus arm as well. He made one of the best throws I’ve seen this year, throwing out Trey Sweeney at third by six steps.

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March 14, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: Brandon Howlett, Stephen Scott, Frank German and Hudson Potts


For the last few months, we've been updating the scouting reports of many players in the system. Over the next few weeks, we will highlight these updated reports. Today's update focuses on the players ranked 50-53 in the current SoxProspects Rankings: Brandon Howlett, Stephen Scott, Frank German and Hudson Potts. These scouting reports are written by Director of Scouting Ian Cundall.

Physical Description: Strong, sturdy frame. Has some projection remaining in his upper body. Looks the part.

Hit: Starts vertical and open and utilizes a high leg kick. Average bat speed. Brings hands up and down during his load, which can cause his swing to get out of sync. Will take a walk, but has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game and has posted strikeout rates over 30 percent in full-season ball. Will expand the zone against breaking balls and struggles with velocity up in the zone due to the length in his swing. Potential below-average hit tool.

Power: Plus raw power. Potential average power in-game. Strong, has the ability to drive the ball, especially to the pull side. Ability to tap into power will be tested by inconsistent hit tool.

Run: Below-average speed. Not a major part of his game.

Field: Soft hands, below-average range. Fundamentally sound, professional defender and will make the plays on balls at him, but struggles when he has to move. Potential fringe-average defender.

Arm: Average arm strength. Not a stand-out arm, but strong and accurate enough for third base.

Career Notes: Was committed to Florida State before signing. Saw immediate gains in pitch recognition after being fitted for proper contact lenses after signing and had something of a breakout debut as a result. Participated in the Fall Instructional League in 2018 and 2020.
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March 12, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: 55-60 in the SoxProspects Rankings


For the last few months, we've been updating the scouting reports of many players in the system. Over the next few weeks, we will highlight these updated reports. Today's update focuses on the players ranked 55-60 (58th ranked prospect Wyatt Olds was featured in an earlier update) in the current SoxProspects Rankings.  These scouting reports are written by Director of Scouting Ian Cundall.

Physical Description: Loose, athletic right-hander with room to add strength. Has already grown since signing and should continue to grow.

Mechanics: Very loose delivery with an easy arm action.

Fastball: 89-91 mph. Tops out in the low-90s. Needs to add velocity. Advanced control for someone his age, but command needs work.

Curveball: 77-79 mph. Good feel for the pitch and ability to spin it. Gets over the ball and can snap it off. Has shown the ability to throw pitch for strikes.

Changeup: 83-86 mph. On the firmer side, but has shown advanced ability to command the pitch for his age.

Slider: Reportedly also has a slider for which he has shown some feel.

Career Notes: Signed with the Royals for $147,500 when he turned 16 on July 6, 2018. Primarily played shortstop growing up, but converted to pitching shortly before signing. Was acquired as a player-to-be-named-later in the Andrew Benintendi trade. 2021 numbers are skewed heavily by a single, terrible outing (0.2 IP, 6 ER), as well as about a month missed at least in part due to rainouts on his scheduled starts.
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March 11, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: Brendan Cellucci and other 2021 Greenville relievers part two


For the last few months, we've been updating the scouting reports of many players in the system. Over the next few weeks, we will highlight these updated reports. Today's update focuses on the second group of relievers who spent time in Greenville last year, led by left-hander Brendan Cellucci . These scouting reports are written by Director of Scouting Ian Cundall.

Physical Description: Tall left-hander with a strong frame. Minimal remaining projection.

Mechanics: Throws over the top. Max-effort delivery. Very quick arm. Stiff, vertical delivery. Medium leg kick. Rigid, deceptive arm action. Keeps arm behind before coming forward. Violent head whack, is looking at third base when he releases the ball. Falls off hard to the glove side.

Fastball: 93-95 mph. Tops out at 97. Live fastball that has shown the ability to miss bats. Ball jumps on hitters. In the early stages of developing command and control, both currently well-below average. Potential plus pitch.

Curveball: 83-86 mph. Short, vertical break. Plus spin rate. At its best, shows depth and bite. Still developing consistency with the pitch. Potential above-average offering.

Changeup: 85-87 mph. Pitch shows late drop. Did not throw in outing scouted in 2021. Will flash average potential.

Career Notes: Struggled as a freshman at Tulane, but emerged as the team's closer late in his sophomore season. Pitched in 1 game in the Cape Cod League in 2018. Signed following his sophomore season to an over-slot deal. Participated in Fall Instructional League in 2019 and 2020. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up.

Summation: Potential up-and-down emergency reliever. Ceiling of an MLB middle reliever. Gap between from current projection and ceiling is driven by concerns about delivery and command and control profile. Struggles to throw strikes and current command is poor. Low floor, decent chance he will not throw enough strikes to get out of the minors. Pitch data is very impressive and grades out well in models. Both fastball and breaking ball have above-average spin rates.
Physical Description: Athletic right-hander with an average build. No remaining projection.

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Starts on the third-base side, but slides to the middle in his wind-up. Starts with his hands by his waist and brings them down and up before coming forward. Rhythmic delivery that he repeats well. Short arm action with a stab behind. Hides the ball well.

Fastball: 91-93 mph. Tops out at 94. Pitch shows late life. Solid command and control profile. Throws a lot of strikes and has already shown the ability to locate. Potential average offering.

Slider: 81-83 mph. 10-to-4 shape with depth at its best. Advanced feel and confidence in the pitch. Throws often against both right- and left-handed hitters. Can roll to the plate on occasion when he does not snap it off. Potential average offering.

Changeup: 80-83 mph. Shows late drop. Clear third pitch, primarily used against left-handed hitters. Potential fringe-average offering.

Career Notes: Before signing as an undrafted free agent, had committed to returning to Alabama in 2021 and using his extra year of eligibility for the canceled 2020 season, then planned to enlist in the U.S. Navy. Apparently missed 2016 season for unknown reasons.

Summation: Potential solid organizational swingman. Capable of pitching in short relief or multi-inning roles. Ceiling of an emergency up-and-down arm. Strong pitchability and feel. Throws strikes, works quick. Type of pitcher every organization needs.

Physical Description: Right-hander with a muscular frame. No remaining projection.

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Starts on the first base side of the rubber. Delivery has effort. Starts with a wide base. Lot of moving parts in delivery. Quick, live arm. Long arm action behind. Deception in delivery.

Fastball: 92-94 mph. Tops out at 96 mph. Pitch jumps on batters who do not seem to get a good look at it. High spin rate and shows swing-and-miss potential. Pitch has late, rising action; has shown the ability to pitch with it up in the zone. Command and control need work, as does consistency from outing to outing. Potential plus offering.

Slider: 84-86 mph. Long, 10-to-4 break, generally. Shape will vary as he adds or subtracts velocity. Will drop arm slot and get on the side of the pitch too often. Potential average offering.

Career Notes: Grew up a Red Sox fan. Entered college at 240 pounds, but lost a lot of weight and now is extremely muscular, getting into fitness enough that he maintains a personal fitness account on social media. Pitched first two seasons at Daytona Beach Community College. Acquired from the Cubs as the PTBNL from the Josh Osich trade.

Summation: Potential priority organizational reliever. Ceiling of an MLB middle-reliever. Has a pretty wide gap between what he projects as right now and his ceiling. Fastball has significant major league potential, possessing many of the traits teams look for. Hitters have a lot of trouble picking it up. Has shown the ability to throw it up in the zone. Secondary offerings lag behind and development of his slider will determine his long-term potential. Slider needs refinement and improved consistency, as it does not have the bat-missing ability of his fastball and is not a pitch hitters need to worry about right now. Intriguing player to get in the pitching development system and work with.

Physical Description: Undersized left-hander with a developed lower half. Has added significant weight since signing. Minimal remaining projection.

Mechanics: Throws from a low three-quarters arm slot, setting up on the third base side of the rubber. Short, compact delivery with effort that he struggles to repeat. Medium leg kick. Trunk twist and stab and hook behind. Quick arm action coming forward.

Fastball: 92-94 mph. Pitch has life and has shown bat-missing ability in the low minors. Well-below-average control and command. Potential average offering due to concerns with long-term command and control profile.

Curveball: 79-81 mph. 1-to-7 break. Feel and confidence in pitch. Does a good job snapping it off with depth. Throws often, in any count, and works it in and out of the zone. Potential above-average offering.

Changeup: 83-84 mph. On the firm side. Tends to telegraph by slowing his arm down. Potential below-average offering.

Career Notes: Pitched in the Venezuelan Development Program in winter 2017. After struggling in the rotation in 2017, has been much better in a relief role. Cut walk rate in 2019 but allowed a corresponding jump in hits. Had IL stints in 2019 of about two weeks for left biceps tendinitis and about three weeks for left shoulder impingement syndrome. Pitched for Venezuela in the 2021 Americas Olympic Qualifier.

Summation: Projects as an organizational bullpen depth. Ceiling of an up-and-down reliever. Has shown significant bat-missing ability in the low minors and steady improvement year after year. Secondary pitches and command and control need refinement. Will show intriguing spin rates on fastball and slider.

Photo Credit: Brendan Cellucci and Oddainer Mosqueda by Kelly O'Connor, Casey Cobb by SoxProspects and Zach Bryant by Jerry Coli

Ian Cundall is Director of Scouting for SoxProspects.com. Follow him on Twitter @IanCundall.

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March 10, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: Jacob Wallace and other 2021 Greenville relievers part one


For the last few months, we've been updating the scouting reports of many players in the system. Over the next few weeks, we will highlight these updated reports. Today's update focuses on a group of relievers who spent time in Greenville last year, led by right-hander Jacob Wallace . These scouting reports are written by Director of Scouting Ian Cundall.

Physical Description: Average, proportional frame with minimal remaining projection. Above-average athlete.

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. High-effort delivery. Quick leg kick and gets low coming forward. Long arm action behind before he whips his arm forward. Extremely quick arm. Opens chest towards the plate while arm drags behind. Lands on-line to the plate before falling off to the first base side. Deception comes from off-putting delivery.

Fastball: 96-98 mph. Pitch shows life and can be thrown up in the zone. Really jumps on hitters. Command and control need refinement. Potential plus-plus offering.

Slider: 84-86 mph. 10-to-4 shape with depth and bite. True swing-and-miss pitch with major league out pitch potential with development. Elite spin rate that has been recorded at over 3000 rpm consistently. Potential plus offering with improved consistency.

Changeup: Third pitch used on occasion with late, arm-side movement. Did not throw in outing scouted in 2021. Added the pitch after turning pro.

Career Notes: Grew up in Methuen, Massachusetts, grew up a Red Sox fan and starred at Methuen High before becoming the closer at UConn. Pitched for Bourne in the 2018 Cape Cod League, where he was named the co-recipient of the John Claffey New England Top Prospect Award and was named a CCBL All-Star. Was acquired late in the 2020 season, so club did not have him report to the Alternate Training Site. Participated in the 2020 Fall Instructional League.
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March 9, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: 2022 IFA Signings and other offseason acquisitions


For the last few months, we've been updating the scouting reports of many players in the system. Over the next few weeks, we will highlight these updated reports. Today's update focuses on a few players he entered the system this offseason, including the Red Sox three biggest international signees, an intriguing minor league free agent signee and two Minor League Rule 5 picks. These scouting reports are written by Director of Scouting Ian Cundall.

Physical Description: Large, powerful frame. Strong upper body and thick lower half. Filled out, no remaining projection. Fringy athlete.

Hit: Loose hands with an extreme uppercut path. Length in swing causes him to struggle with velocity and leads to a lot of swing-and-miss. Solid bat speed, but struggles to recognize secondary pitches, especially against left-handed pitchers. Takes advantage of mistake pitches with authority. Really struggles against left-handed pitchers. Platoon profile, potential below-average hit tool if limited to facing primarily right-handed pitchers.

Power: Elite raw power. In-game power is limited by an inconsistent hit tool. Has the ability to muscle balls out even when he does not make consistent contact. Power plays best against right-handed pitchers.

Run: 20 speed. Not a part of his game. Base-clogger.

Field: Limited to first base. Below-average glove, limited range. Potential below-average defender.

Arm: Average arm. Adequate for first base.

Career Notes: Born and raised in Mexico, moved to California prior to his junior high school season. Undrafted out of high school. Selected in the 16th round in 2014 after spending one season in junior college. Won the 2018 California League Home Run Derby. Signed with the LG Twins of the KBO for the 2020 and 2021 seasons.
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March 8, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: Jay Groome, Brandon Walter, Chase Shugart and Dylan Spacke


For the last few months, we've been updating the scouting reports of many players in the system. Over the next few weeks, we will highlight these updated reports. Today's update focuses on four starting pitchers from last years Greenville Drive, headlined by left-handed pitchers Jay Groome and Brandon Walter. These scouting reports are written by Director of Scouting Ian Cundall.

Physical Description: Very large pitcher's frame. Wide, mature upper body and filled-out lower half. Looks all of his listed height and weight. Below-average athlete. Height is imposing on the mound. Body will need maintenance and bears watching as he matures; has had problems maintaining his conditioning. How his body develops will depend on how much work he puts in off the field.

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Starts on the first base side from the wind-up. Medium-effort delivery. Utilizes a high leg lift and is upright and stiff. Arm action includes a stab behind. Hides the ball briefly when he brings it behind his back and then again behind his head as he comes forward. Delivery is inconsistent and has gotten stiffer as his athleticism and coordination have regressed. Has trouble getting his arm in sync with the rest of his delivery. Has a tendency to open up his front side early while his arm lags behind and comes through late. When arm is out ahead, will miss up to the glove side; when it drags behind, tends to miss arm-side.

Fastball: Sits 90-92 mph. Tops out at 94 mph. Will come out at 92-94 mph, but settles in after an inning or two at 90-92. Prior to his elbow injury, would sit 92-94 mph and could dial it up to the 94-96 mph range. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, has yet to consistently show that velocity. At its best, the pitch gets on hitters quickly and has life. Still needs to show the ability to hold velocity deeper into games. Even at diminished velocity, pitch has shown swing-and-miss potential when commanded. Potential to develop into an average offering with refined command.

Curveball: 78-80 mph. 1-to-7 shape. At its best, shows depth and late finish. Feel comes and goes. When he has it working, can either throw in the zone or bury down and out of the zone to induce swinging strikes. At its best pre-surgery, it showed plus potential, but feel and consistency have not returned. Now projects as an average-to-better offering.

Changeup: 79-82 mph. Throws with deceptive arm speed the majority of the time. Shows late drop. Has shown the ability to pull the string on it and serves as an effective pitch against righties, to whom he almost exclusively throws it. Has improved and now shows as much or more potential than curveball. Did not throw much in high school or in 2016. Began to incorporate it more in 2017 as a work-in-progress as he tried to develop feel. Since return from surgery, pitch has steadily improved and he has shown more feel for it. Potential average-to-better offering.

Slider: 82-87 mph. Short, horizontal movement. Has become more comfortable with it during the 2021 season. Inconsistent shape and feel. Has shown a willingness to throw it to both right- and left-handed hitters. First threw the pitch at 2020 Fall Instructional League; pitch has come a long way since then but is still a work in progress. Potential fringe-average offering.
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March 7, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: Freddy Valdez, Jhostynxon Garcia and more from the FCL and DSL


For the last few months, we've been updating the scouting reports of many players in the system. Over the next few weeks, we will highlight these updated reports. Today's update focuses on a group of players who spent last year in the FCL and DSL. These scouting reports are written by Director of Scouting Ian Cundall.

Physical Description: Tall, sturdy frame. Physical for his age and likely to get bigger as he matures.

Hit: Starts crouched and open. Leg lift timing device. Handsy swing that is not very pretty. Swing has significant holes that pitchers can exploit. Lacks feel for hit and is still in the early stages of developing an approach. Average bat control, below-average pitch recognition. Wide range of outcomes and a lot of development remaining, but right now projects for a well below-average hit tool.

Power: Plus raw power. Can impact the baseball, especially to the pull side. How his game power actualizes will depend on how his contact skills develop and how he is able to handle velocity.

Run: Fringe-average speed. Likely to lose speed as he matures given his size.

Field: Corner-only profile. Needs to work on his reads. Not the most instinctual defender. Potential to develop into a fringe-average corner outfielder.

Arm: Average arm. Strength grade varies depending on source.

Career Notes: Signed with the Mets for $1.45 million during the 2018/19 signing period. Acquired as a player-to-be-named-later from the Mets in the Andrew Benintendi trade.
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March 6, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: 2021 Salem relievers


For the last few months, we've been updating the scouting reports of many players in the system. Over the next few weeks, we will highlight these updated reports. Today's update focuses on a group of relievers who ended last year in Low-A Salem. These scouting reports are written by Director of Scouting Ian Cundall.

Devon Roedahl, Right-handed pitcher
Physical Description: Sturdy frame with no remaining projection. Looks listed height and weight.

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Starts on the first base side of the rubber. Jerky delivery with a head whack. Stiff arm action with a long arm swing behind. Arm action varies at times depending on the pitch he is throwing.

Fastball: 91-93 mph. Pitch shows some life up in the zone. Throws strikes, solid command profile. Not a true bat-missing option. Most effective when sequenced correctly in conjunction with his slider and splitter. Potential average offering.

Split-Finger Fastball: 83-85 mph. Shows late dive when at its best. Has confidence and feel in the pitch. Will throw in any count to both righties and lefties. Will shorten arm action and telegraph on occasion. Potential average offering.

Slider: 82-85 mph. Short, vertical break. Has shown the ability to miss bats against low-minors hitters when age-advanced for the level. Will be tested by more advanced bats. Potential below-average offering.
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March 5, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: High-minors depth arms


For the last few months, we've been updating the scouting reports of many players in the system. Over the next few weeks, we will highlight these updated reports. Today's update focuses on a group of high-minors relievers. These scouting reports are written by Director of Scouting Ian Cundall.

Rio Gomez, Left-handed pitcher 
Physical Description: Average frame with minimal remaining projection. Solid athlete.

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Starts on the first base side of the rubber. Compact delivery. High leg kick. Short arm action behind. Hides the ball very well and repeats delivery. Quick to the plate.

Fastball: 88-90 mph. Pitch shows sink. Throws strikes and keeps the ball down. Solid command and control profile. Has struggled to miss bats against more advanced hitters. Potential fringe-average offering.

Slider: 80-82 mph. 1-to-7 shape. Pitch shows depth. Can snap it off in the zone or bury it down and out. Potential average pitch.

Changeup: 83-84 mph. Throws with deceptive arm speed. Pitch shows late drop. Potential below-average offering.
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March 4, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: Wilkelman Gonzalez, Chih-Jung Liu and more low-minors starters


For the last few months, we've been updating the scouting reports of many players in the system. Over the next few weeks, we will highlight these updated reports, starting today with starting pitchers from last year's Salem Red Sox. These scouting reports are written by Director of Scouting Ian Cundall.

Wilkelman Gonzalez, Right-handed pitcher

Physical Description: Slightly undersized frame. Sturdy lower half with remaining projection in his upper body. Not that tall, looks heavier than listed weight of 167 pounds. Solid athlete.

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Some effort in delivery. Does not use a wind-up. Loose, quick arm. Rotational delivery. High leg kick. Stiff arm action with a slight stab behind. Front side deception. Arm action is a little violent and can get out of sync from the rest of his delivery at times.

Fastball: 92-95 mph. Tops out at 97 mph. Live arm. Velocity drops considerably the deeper he works into games. Will come out 95-97 mph and eventually settle in at 92-94 mph, topping out at 95 mph, by the third inning. Fastball has shown bat-missing ability even in the zone. Pitch shows all types of movement: life, tail, cut, and sink. Variety of movement is a result of him being very raw and still learning how to pitch. Command and control are works in progress. Has flashed the ability to locate on occasions, but is wild at present. Will often yank the pitch to the glove side when his arm gets out ahead of the rest of his delivery. Potential plus offering with refinement.
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August 3, 2021 at 8:08 PM

Scouting Scratch: Josh Winckowski, Durbin Feltman and Denyi Reyes


Over the past few weeks, I have traveled to see Portland and Worcester in person. This
is the second of several scouting notebooks breaking down what I’m seeing and hearing
about Red Sox prospects, starting with the Portland pitchers.

Right-hander Josh Winckowski has been one of the better Red Sox pitchers in the upper minors this year, opening eyes after he was left unprotected in the 2020 Rule 5 draft, then traded to the Mets and ultimately the Red Sox this past offseason. Recently, I got my first look at him in person and came away impressed. Winckowski has a strong, physical frame and looks all of his listed 6-4, 215 pounds. His fastball sat 94-96 mph in the first two innings before settling in at 92-94 mph. He does not try to miss bats with the fastball, but rather uses it to generate weak contact and get quick outs. He has solid control of it and does a good job keeping it out of the middle of the zone.

His slider is Winckowski’s bat-missing pitch. He throws it 82-86 mph and has advanced feel and confidence in it. He will throw it in any count and showed the willingness to throw it to—and ability to get swinging strikes against—hitters from both sides of the plate. The shape of the pitch varies some—sometimes showing more vertical, deep break, others coming in harder with more tilt—and this seems to be a deliberate choice to manipulate the velocity and shape depending on the hitter he is facing.
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July 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM

Scouting Scratch: Brayan Bello, Jose Adames and Zack Kelly


Over the past few weeks, I have traveled to see Portland and Worcester in person. This is the first of several scouting notebooks breaking down what I’m seeing and hearing about Red Sox prospects, starting with the Portland pitchers.

Right-handed pitcher Brayan Bello is one of the Red Sox prospects whose stock has risen the most this season. Coming out of Fall Instructs, we reported that Bello was showing some of the best raw stuff of any pitcher that threw there. He has continued his ascension, building upon that impressive look, with raw stuff that has ticked up even more this year. In a recent start, Bello sat 95-97 mph and flashed a plus changeup and above-average slider. Even though he is not the biggest pitcher, he generates easy velocity. He is a good athlete with a lightning-quick arm that is so fast it can easily get out of sync with the rest of his delivery. His changeup is the more advanced of his two secondary pitches, working in the 85-88 mph range with late, diving movement. He can really pull the string on it and throws it with the same arm speed as his fastball. It is a potential plus pitch, one that could miss bats at the highest level. His slider lags behind some, but still has improved to the point where it will flash at least above-average potential. He throws it in the mid-80s with the pitch showing two-plane movement and solid depth. Bello has many of the ingredients teams look for in a starting pitching prospect. He has the potential for three at least average pitches, with one of his secondaries already looking like a major league-quality out pitch. His stock is on the rise both within the SoxProspects ranks and nationally. We currently have him as the third-ranked pitching prospect in the system, but he is pushing to move higher on that list. As several industry sources have asked me, “are we sure Bello isn’t the top pitching prospect in the system already?”
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June 29, 2021 at 9:00 AM

Scouting Report Updates: Garrett Whitlock, Kaleb Ort, Eduard Bazardo and Raynel Espinal


Today's SoxProspects scouting report update highlights four right-handed pitchers that impressed at Major League Spring Training or were with Worcester to start the Triple-A season. SoxProspects.com scouting reports are written by Director of Scouting Ian Cundall.

Garrett Whitlock, Right-handed pitcher

Physical Description:
Tall, sturdy frame. Looks the part of a prototypical starting pitcher. Little-to-no remaining projection.

Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Starts on the third base side of the rubber. Does not use a windup. Starts tall and gets well-above-average extension towards home plate. Really uses his size well in his delivery and gets elite extension. Short arm action behind, hides the ball. Delivery is a little stiff, but he repeats it well.

Fastball: 94-97 mph. Tops out at 99 mph. Throws both a four-seam and a sinker, primarily relying on the sinker. Pitch shows heavy sink and jumps on hitters due to his extension towards the plate. Sinker induces a lot of groundballs. Velocity jumped after Tommy John surgery from prior 90-93, T95 range. Potential plus offering.

Changeup: 82-84 mph. Throws with circle grip. Pitch has improved drastically since joining the Red Sox, reportedly due to conversations with Matt Andriese during spring training in 2021. Now is his primary secondary. Pitch shows heavy drop and fade and will fall off the table at his best. Used to throw harder at 86-88 mph. Potential plus offering.

Slider: 82-85 mph. True slider with vertical shape. Has continued working on development of the pitch with Red Sox staff in 2021. Sometimes will throw even harder in the 86-88 mph range. Pitch has shown the ability to miss bats at the highest levels. Does not have much horizontal movement. Potential above-average offering.
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May 5, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Scouting Scratch: Connor Seabold, Eduard Bazardo, Raynel Espinal


Although the minor league season was postponed until May 4, the players at the Alternate Training Site (ATS) in Worcester have been able to get some work against players from outside of the organization in three sets of scrimmages against players from the New York Mets’ Site this month. Two of the sets were played at the Mets’ site in Brooklyn, but the teams played three games April 17-19 at Polar Park, and I was fortunate enough to attend two games—the first time I’ve seen live baseball since September 2019. Since these were only scrimmages, I won’t be doing a full scouting scratch, rather here is a compilation of notes from the two games headlined by standout performances from Connor Seabold.

- Connor Seabold got the start in the last game of the series and was solid, throwing six shutout innings, striking out five, while allowing five hits, walking two. The Mets lineup featured several former major league players, so it was a good test for him and he passed easily, even though he lacked feel for his best pitch. Seabold came out throwing 93-95 mph in the first before settling in at 91-94 mph. His control was plus, but his command was a little off and he lost it at times, especially in the second inning. Whenever it went, however, he was able to pitch through it and work out of trouble. Seabold’s best secondary is his changeup, but he only threw it a few times of the course of the outing. It was clear he lacked feel for it until his sixth inning off work when he threw a few good ones—both parts of that statement confirmed by Seabold in his post-game press availability. With his changeup lacking, he instead relied on his slider, which flashed solid-average potential. It ranged from 81-86 mph and had short, 10-to-4 break. He showed confidence in the pitch, which is an encouraging development as our previous reports had it as a clear third pitch and more on the developmental side. If that pitch can get to average, along with his increased velocity and plus changeup, that gives him three at least average pitches in his arsenal. Seabold also showed a fourth pitch, a curveball, that he has used sparingly before. It came in 75-79 mph with longer, 11-to-5 shape. He did not consistently snap it off and it seemed like a fringe-average pitch at best. Overall, it was an encouraging look, as Seabold was able to control a veteran lineup without his best pitch. 
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May 3, 2021 at 9:30 AM

Scouting Scratch: Jarren Duran, Jeter Downs, Michael Chavis and Michael Gettys


Although the minor league season was postponed until May 4, the players at the Alternate Training Site (ATS) in Worcester have been able to get some work against players from outside of the organization in three sets of scrimmages against players from the New York Mets’ Site this month. Two of the sets were played at the Mets’ site in Brooklyn, but the teams played three games April 17-19 at Polar Park, and I was fortunate enough to attend two games—the first time I’ve seen live baseball since September 2019. Since these were only scrimmages, I won’t be doing a full scouting scratch, rather here is a compilation of notes from the two games headlined by standout performances from Jarren Duran.

- Jarren Duran has carried over his performance from Red Sox spring training, where he was one of the most intriguing hitters in camp, to the ATS, where he has continued to show the power potential that has been unlocked by his swing change. I saw seven at-bats from Duran over the two games, and he hit two home runs in the second game. He hit the ball hard two other times and showed consistent ability to impact the baseball, an area in which he was lacking in the past. Duran is also more aggressive at the plate, as he seems to hunt fastballs early in the count and rarely gets cheated when he decides to swing. This aggressiveness is something pitchers could take advantage of, and he did show some swing-and-miss in the two-game look. Defensively, Duran has started to see time in the outfield corners more recently, but in this look he played center field. He was not really tested, but I did notice a few times that he took a false step or had trouble reading the ball off the bat, which has been an issue since he converted to the outfield. While his speed allows him to cover for these issues sometimes, it is a deficiency that could be magnified at the major league level. 
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