February 27, 2023 at 8:00 AM
2023 Countdown to Spring Training: 30-26
We've made it through the bulk of the offseason and spring training is here! To celebrate the return of baseball, we'll be counting down by posting our scouting reports for the players on our Top 60 three times a week from February 13 until March 15—not coincidentally, the same day the SoxProspects brass arrive in Fort Myers for the start of games in minor league camp.
2022 Teams: Greenville
Final Stats: 517 PA, .230/.311/.357, 36 XBH, 21 SB, 9.3 BB%, 31.3 K%
2023 Projected Level: Portland
Scouting Report
Physical Description: Small frame with minimal remaining projection. Surprisingly strong for his size. Above-average athlete.
Hit: Switch hitter. Starts open with his hands high. Utilizes a leg kick timing device. Quick hands, has bat speed. Swing can get long and out of sync. Average zone contact and chase rates. Has a decent amount of swing-and-miss in his game, mainly against breaking balls down and fastballs with good velocity up. Needs to improve his quality of contact and improve his approach. Bat will be tested against more advanced pitching. Potential below-average hit tool.
Power: Fringe-average raw power. Swing is more geared to hard line drives in the gap, but has the ability to drive it out as well. Below-average power potential.
Run: Average speed. Good baserunning instincts. Will take the extra base when it is there and steal a base in the right situation.
Field: Quick twitch athlete with good instincts. Soft hands, solid all-around defensive profile. True utility profile capable of playing several positions. Has played center field, left field, second base and shortstop as a pro, and also saw time at catcher and third base in college. In the outfield, shows good range and closing speed. Potential above-average defender.
Arm: Average arm strength. Quick release, accurate.
Career Notes: Attended the same high school as 14 big leaguers, including Hall of Famers Ken Griffey Jr. and Barry Larkin. Named Second Team All-ACC in 2019 and 2021 and to the ACC All-Freshman team in 2019. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program. Was set to participate in the 2022 Fall Performance Program that was cancelled due to Hurricane Ian.
Summation: Potential high-end organizational player. Ceiling of an up-and-down utility player. High floor, but does not have much of a ceiling. Lacks a true carrying tool, but has several average-ish tools. Sum-of-all-parts profile. Strong defensive versatility and contact skills will carry him through the system.
#29: Luis Guerrero, RHP
2022 Teams: FCl, Salem and Greenville
Final Stats: 39 IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 59 K, 17 BB, 20% swinging strike rate
2023 Projected Level: Greenville
Scouting Report
Physical Description: Athletic frame. Slightly undersized. Sturdy, filled out. Minimal remaining projection.
Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Starts on the first base side and has a high leg kick. Effort in delivery. Explodes forward with a quick arm action. Will add a trunk twist on some occasions to change his timing when coming to the plate.
Fastball: 96-98 mph. Tops out at 100 mph. Velocity increased substantially in pro ball. Pitch shows life up in the zone. On the straight side. Command and control are erratic. Pitch does not miss as many bats as you might expect given its velocity. Potential plus offering.
Splitter: 83-85 mph. Extremely low spin rate. Primary secondary. Confidence and feel in pitch. Pitch shows late, parachuting movement down in the zone. Has potential to miss bats at the highest level. Especially effective against left-handed hitters. Potential plus pitch.
Slider: 88-91 mph. Short, 10-to-4 break. Pitch shows two-plane shape and tight rotation at its best. Inconsistent feel at the moment. Potential fringe-average offering.
Curveball: 75-79 mph. Did not throw in outings scouted in 2022.
Career Notes: Participated in the 2021 MLB Draft League. Tied for seventh in NJCAA in strikeouts and ninth in K/9 at Chipola.
Summation: Potential middle reliever. Ceiling of a late-inning relief arm. On the raw side and needs to improve his command and consistency, but has some of the best raw stuff of any relief arm in the system. Splitter is a potential separator pitch with the ability to miss bats at the highest level. Fastball has good velocity, but is hittable and he will have to show the ability to command it to succeed.
#28: Jedixson Paez, RHP
2022 Teams: FCL
Final Stats: 57 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 49 K, 13 BB
2023 Projected Level: Salem
Scouting Report
Physical Description: Average frame. On the thin side; needs to mature physically and add strength.
Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Starts on the first base side. Short arm action. Hides the ball well. Crouches before coming forward. Some effort in his delivery, but repeats it well.
Fastball: 88-90 mph. Tops out at 92 mph. Saw his velocity increase from 84-86 mph in the course of a year from where he sat while pitching in the DSL. Projects to add more velocity as he matures. Advanced feel for command and control for his age. Pounds the zone and already shows the ability to locate. Potential fringe-average pitch, but if velocity continues to tick up, grade can change.
Curveball: 74-76 mph. Pitch shows depth and tight rotation. Solid feel and will use in any count. Potential above-average offering.
Changeup: 80-82 mph. Pitch shows fade down and in on right-handed hitters. Feel and confidence with the pitch. Potential average offering.
Career Notes: Red Sox 2021 Latin Program Pitcher of the Year. Participated in the Fall Performance Program in 2021. Was set to participate in the 2022 Fall Performance Program that was cancelled due to Hurricane Ian.
Summation: Potential emergency up-and-down starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter. One of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Red Sox low minors, but has a wide gap between what he currently is and what he could be. Already shows an intriguing three-pitch mix with advanced feel and command for his age. Stuff at present is on the light side, but has already started to tick up. If stuff continues to tick up, projection could change.
#27: Ryan Fernandez, RHP
2022 Teams: Greenville and Portland
Final Stats: 39.2 IP, 4.31 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 56 K, 11 BB, 20% swinging strike rate
2023 Projected Level: Portland
Scouting Report
Physical Description: Average frame, minimal remaining projection.
Mechanics: Throws from a high three-quarters arm slot from the third base side of the rubber. Jerky, stiff delivery. High leg kick, stays vertical. Shorter arm action with a stab behind. Stays on-line to the plate. Quick arm.
Fastball: 96-98 mph. Tops out at 99 mph. Velocity increased in 2022 from 92-95 into the high-90s. Solid command and control profile. Pitch shows life and bat-missing ability. Potential plus pitch.
Cutter: 90-92 mph. High spin rate with strong pitch characteristics. Shows strong bat-missing ability both in and out of the zone. Potential plus offering.
Slider: 87-89 mph. Short, horizontal movement. Shape gets longer at lower velocities and is more cutter-like when thrown harder. Can run into his cutter at times and is hard to distinguish at higher velocities between the two.
Curveball: 80-84 mph. Short, vertical break. Very quick downward action. Struggles to land in the zone for strikes. Below-average potential. Did not use in 2022.
Changeup: 83-85 mph. Firm, inconsistent. Will flash vertical drop on occasion. Below-average potential. Did not use in 2022.
Career Notes: Not a draft target out of high school, ended up at Hillsborough CC in Tampa. Selected in the 23rd round, had no reported college commitment. Pitched just once after July 30 in 2022 due to right elbow inflammation. Participated in 2023 Rookie Development Program.
Summation: Potential up-and-down reliever. Ceiling of a middle reliever. Stuff increase in 2022 has significantly changed his profile, but projection is a hedge pending his showing similar stuff when he returns from injury. At his best, will show two potential plus pitches with bat-missing ability. Whether he can maintain these gains remains to be seen, but now is a very intriguing potential relief arm.
#26: David Hamilton, UTIL
2022 Teams: Portland
Final Stats: 531 PA, .251/.338/.402, 37 XBH, 70 SB, 10.5 BB%, 22.4 K%
2023 Projected Level: Worcester
Scouting Report
Physical Description: Undersized, athletic. Some projection remaining, needs to add strength.
Hit: Starts square with his hands high. Toe tap timing device. Has some length in his swing and an uphill swing path. Makes a lot of weak contact in the air. Swing would be better suited to his athleticism if it was shorter and more line drive-oriented than current swing designed to hit the ball in the air. Has decent pitch recognition skills and knowledge of the strike zone. Will strike out some and there are questions about how his hit tool will play against more advanced pitching. Struggles against velocity, especially up, and against left-handed pitchers. Potential fringe-average hit tool.
Power: Well below-average raw power. Not a major part of his game. Swing is designed to go gap-to-gap, rather than for over-the-fence power. Well below-average game power potential as well.
Run: Plus-to-better speed. Solid baserunning instincts. Seems to have recovered fully from an Achilles tendon injury during college.
Field: Poor footwork and range and does not look comfortable at shortstop. Has a tendency to rush plays and has trouble fielding the ball on the run. At second base, is a bit robotic and only shows average hands. Footwork is sloppy there as well and it is unclear if he can stick there long-term. Speed and athleticism might be best suited for center field, where he has played a couple times in 2022. Potential below-average defender.
Arm: Below-average arm strength. Has a quick release, but throws lack carry. Arm is best suited long-term for second base or an outfield corner.
Career Notes: Missed his entire junior season at Texas due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. Spent time with an independent team in Texas coached by Roger Clemens during the lost 2020 season. Impressed scouts during 2020 Fall Instructs. Did not make his affiliated debut until 2021. Had the fifth-most stolen bases and third-most triples in all of the minor leagues in 2021. Was acquired with Jackie Bradley and Alex Binelas for Hunter Renfroe in December 2021 on the eve of the lockout. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up. Received a non-roster invitation to MLB spring training in 2022. Broke Portland's franchise stolen base record in 2022. Added to the 40-man roster in November 2022 to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 Draft. Participated in 2023 Rookie Development Program.
Summation: Potential organizational utility player. Ceiling of an emergency up-and-down utility type. Could stand to remake his swing in order to prioritize line drives and hitting the ball on the ground more in order to better utilize his speed. Lack of defensive ability limits upside. Projects as below-average in the infield and could stand to move to the outfield, where his speed and athleticism would be better utilized.
Photo Credit: Tyler McDonough, Jedixson Paez and David Hamilton by Kelly O'Connor.
Ian Cundall is Director of Scouting for SoxProspects.com. Follow him on Twitter @IanCundall.