How the Red Sox draft strategy has affected the club's pitching development

For years, any discussion of the Red Sox farm system has eventually turned to the organization's struggles to develop homegrown pitching, especially impact starters. This is clearly an area Craig Breslow was brought in to improve, and this offseason he has already made sweeping changes to the pitching infrastructure. He brought in Andrew Bailey as the major league pitching coach, Justin Willard as director of pitching, and Kyle Boddy as a special advisor, also overhauling almost the entire Worcester pitching apparatus with new coaches and catchers. This group is tasked with developing a group of pitching prospects that is deep, with many arms with major league potential, but many, if not all of those arms profile best as multi- or single-inning relievers. In the current SoxProspects top 60, the highest-ranked pitcher is Luis Perales at 7, and there are only three other pitchers in the top 20: Wikelman Gonzalez (9), Richard Fitts (11), and Yordanny Monegro (20). From 21-40, we have 13 pitchers ranked, most of whom either already are or profile as relievers. 

Developing starting pitching is not easy, but other systems have certainly had more success at it than Boston. So what are teams like the Mariners and Dodgers doing that has allowed them to have a stream of major league-ready arms coming through their system, including high-end starting pitchers? Overall, the Red Sox have done a good job with the players they’ve had in the system. Brayan Bello is up at the major league level and drastically improved during his time in the organization. Perales and Gonzalez are both international signees who have steadily improved as they’ve progressed. Draftees such as Hunter Dobbins (highest-ranked Red Sox draftee in the system at 23rd) and Shane Drohan also made steady progress as they moved up the ladder, but overall, there is still a lack of starting pitching prospects.  

Given the effort the Red Sox have put into modernizing their pitching development, especially starting in September 2015 with the appointment of Brian Bannister to Director of Pitching Analysis and Development, their continued relative inability to develop a top starting pitching prospect stands out. The top recent pitcher to come through the system, Bello, and the top two pitching prospects in the system all came via the international market, where the Red Sox have done a good job of identifying pitchers and developing them. The amateur draft is a different story, however. Diving into the club’s draft history from 2018-2023 reveals a lack of resources (high picks and bonuses) devoted to pitchers, especially compared to other organizations that have successfully developed multiple homegrown starters and top pitching prospects. Digging into where the most successful major league starting pitchers and high-end pitching prospects came from, it appears that the Red Sox have made it more difficult for themselves to develop these high-end pitchers by primarily allocating their draft resources toward hitters.

Red Sox Drafting Trends
The last time the Red Sox drafted a starting pitcher in the first round was in 2017 with Tanner Houck. Since then, the Red Sox’s drafts have skewed heavily towards hitters. Interestingly, this goes directly against what they did in the previous six years, which also coincided with the introduction of the bonus pool system in 2012.

• From 2012-2017 (six drafts), the Red Sox drafted and signed 77 pitchers who received 56% ($25,126,500) of their total bonus money spent. 
• In those same drafts, they signed 86 hitters who received 43% ($19,377,200) of the bonus total. (These numbers could be slightly off, as bonus information wasn’t available for some post-10th round signings from 2012-2014 who all received under $100,000)
• The Red Sox gave out seven $1,000,000 bonuses and six bonuses between $500,000 and $1,000,000 during this period. Notable names on that list include: 
• Jay Groome (2016 1st round, 12th overall, $3,650,000)
• Trey Ball (2013 1st round, 7th overall, $2,750,000)
• Tanner Houck (2017 1st round, 24th overall, $2,614,500)
• Brian Johnson (2012 supplemental 1st round, 31st overall, $1,575,000)
• Michael Kopech (2014 1st round, 33rd overall, $1,500,000)
• Ty Buttrey (2012 4th round, 151st overall, $1,300,000)
• Pat Light (2012 supplemental 1st round, 37th overall, $1,000,000)  

Since 2018, the Red Sox’s draft strategy has drastically changed. They’ve gone heavy on hitters early on and devoted very little resources, both in terms of early picks and bonus money, towards pitchers. Instead, they have flipped towards a volume-based approach with pitchers, taking more pitchers than hitters but rarely going over slot for them and primarily targeting them in later rounds.

• From 2018-2023, the Red Sox drafted and signed 60 pitchers, but these pitchers only made up 19% ($9,919,850) of the total bonuses they gave out during that time. On the flip side, the 53 hitters they selected in this period received 81% ($40,970,100) of the total bonuses.
• The earliest the Red Sox have selected a pitcher since 2018 was 99th overall in the 2022 third round with Dalton Rogers. They also selected two other pitchers in the third round during this time, Durbin Feltman in 2018 (pick 100) and Ryan Zeferjahn in 2019 (pick 107).
• The highest bonus the Red Sox have given to a pitcher since 2018 is $600,000, to Shane Drohan in the final round of the shortened 2020 draft.
• They have only given out only four bonuses greater than $500,000 to pitchers in these six years (Drohan $600,000, Feltman $559,600, Zeferjahn $500,000, and Blake Loubier $500,000). 
• During that same time frame, they have given out 18 bonuses of more than $500,000 to hitters.

• They have only given seven pitchers over-slot deals in these six years (4 were in 2019) and the most over-slot they’ve gone for any pitcher is $375,000 over for Loubier in 2019.
• In the same period, they’ve gone over slot for hitters 14 times, including over $1 million over slot for Roman Anthony, Nazzan Zanetello, and Blaze Jordan.
• Looking at just the last three drafts (2021-2023), they have given out only one overslot deal to a pitcher, Hunter Dobbins in the 8th round of 2021, who received $197,500, which was $8,600 overslot.

Industry-wide Drafting Trends
The Red Sox aren’t alone in prioritizing volume with pitchers from 2018-2023. 27 out of the 30 MLB teams have selected more pitchers than hitters during this time, but with how hitter-focused the Red Sox have gone with their bonus resources, I was curious if this was a trend we were seeing across the game. After looking at every team's draft in the same window, the Red Sox stand out as an outlier:

• The Red Sox devoted the lowest percentage of their draft bonuses to pitchers than any other MLB organization at just 19%. The only other teams below 30% were Baltimore at 22% and Oakland at 26%.
• 20 teams devoted at least 40% of their bonuses to pitching. 9 devoted over 50% of their bonuses to pitching.

• The Red Sox committed the lowest total bonus amount to pitchers at $9,919,850. The next-lowest amount for pitchers was Houston at $12,760,299. Houston’s total bonus outlay during this time was the lowest in baseball, though, so that still represented 37% of their total. Oakland was the only other team that did not give at least $15,000,000 in bonuses to pitchers. 
• 19 teams gave at least $25,000,000 in bonuses to pitchers and 9 teams spent at least $30,000,000. 
• The Red Sox were the only team not to give a $1,000,000 bonus to a pitcher in this six-draft stretch. In fact, every other team gave at least two such bonuses. Philadelphia gave out two (Mick Abel, $4,075,000 and Andrew Painter, $3,900,000), while Houston and Oakland each gave out three.
• Again, this is a matter of allocation, not total spending: Even though the Red Sox were 24th out of 30 teams in total bonus money spent in this period, a figure reflecting the size of their bonus pools more than anything else, they were 6th in total bonus amount given to hitters. 

Digging into some exemplar teams' drafts even further, the lack of resources devoted to pitchers by the Red Sox stands out even more. Here is a chart showing the distribution of bonuses given to pitchers and hitters from 2018-2023 by the Red Sox and four other teams who have had success drafting and developing pitchers in this time frame.

• 2018-2023 Boston Red Sox draft bonus allocation: 19% pitchers, 81% hitters
• Pitchers: 0 bonuses greater than $1,000,000 and 4 between $500,000 to $999,999 
• Hitters: 14 bonuses greater than $1,000,000 and 4 more between $500,000 to $999,999 
• 2018-2023 New York Yankees draft bonus allocation: 39% pitchers, 61% hitters
• Pitchers: 4 bonuses greater than $1,000,000 and 3 more between $500,000 to $999,999 
• Hitters: 7 bonuses greater than $1,000,000 and 5 more between $500,000 to $999,999  
• 2018-2023 Tampa Bay Rays draft bonus allocation: 45% pitchers, 55% hitters
• Pitchers: 7 bonuses greater than $1,000,000 and 6 more between $500,000 to $999,999 
• Hitters: 11 bonus greater than $1,000,000 and 7 more between $500,000 to $999,999 
• 2018-2023 Seattle Mariners draft bonus allocation: 48% pitchers, 52% hitters
• Pitchers: 7 bonuses greater than $1,000,000 and 4 more between $500,000 to $999,999 
• Hitters: 10 bonuses greater than $1,000,000 and 4 more between $500,000 to $999,999 
• 2018-2023 Los Angeles Dodgers draft bonus allocation: 50% pitchers, 50% hitters
• Pitchers: 6 bonuses greater than $1,000,000 and 5 more between $500,000 to $999,999 
• Hitters: 6 bonuses greater than $1,000,000 and 2 more between $500,000 to $999,999

Where do the top major league pitchers come from?
Developing starting pitchers is very difficult, and the Red Sox aren’t alone in struggling in that area. Given the lack of resources in the draft they have used towards pitchers, I was curious how the top pitchers last year entered professional baseball. In 2023, there were only 28 qualified pitchers that achieved three or more fWAR:

• 23 of the 28 entered baseball through the amateur draft. 
• 11 were first-round picks (including supplemental round), one was a second-round pick, two were third-round picks, five were fourth-round picks and one each came from the fifth through eighth rounds. 
• Four were originally signed as international prospects (Pablo Lopez, Framber Valdez, Luis Castillo, and Freddy Peralta) and Kodai Senga was signed as a professional international free agent.

With how the draft is structured right now, bonus amounts are just as important as where these pitchers were drafted. 

• 14 of 23 received at least $1 million in bonus money.
• An additional four received between $500,000 and $750,000. 
• Only 5 of the 23 received a bonus of less than $500,000 (Spencer Strider $449,300, Jordan Montgomery $424,000, Kyle Bradish $397,500, Merrill Kelly $125,000, Miles Mikolas $125,000)

Looking at the pitchers with greater than 3 fWAR in 2022 reveals similar trends:

• 19 of 26 entered baseball through the amateur draft.
• 12 were first-round picks (including supplemental round), one was a third-round pick, four were fourth-round picks and one each in the sixth and eighth rounds.
• 12 of 19 received at least $1,400,000 
• An additional four received between $500,000 and $750,000. 
• Only 3 received less than $500,000 (Shane Bieber $420,000, Corey Kluber $200,000, Merrill Kelly $125,000)

Where do the top pitching prospects come from?
The next area I wanted to explore was the national top prospects lists to see where the pitching prospects on those lists came from. Baseball America recently released its 2024 Top 100 and similar trends to what we saw with the top-performing major league pitchers last year emerged from the 31 pitchers who made the list:

• 30 were selected in the amateur draft, with only one signed as an international prospect (Luis Morales, Oakland, $3,000,000 bonus)
• 15 of the 30 were selected in the first round (including supplemental round), 3 were selected in the second round, 5 in the third round, and 1 each in the fourth through seventh rounds. 
• 23 received at least a $1,000,000 bonus.
• 5 of the remaining 8 pitchers received between $500,000 and $999,999. 
• Only 3 pitchers received less than $500,000: Chase Hampton (2022 6th round, $497,500), Nick Frasso (2020 4th round, $459,000), and Gavin Stone (2020 5th round, $97,500)
• Of the 9 pitchers selected in rounds 3-7, five of them received an over-slot bonus.

Looking at the 2023 Baseball America Top 100 list, similar trends emerge from the 27 prospect arms on their list (excluding Kodai Senga, who was 16th):

• 25 were selected in the amateur draft, while two were signed as international prospects (Eury Perez, Miami, $200,000 and Luis Ortiz, Pittsburgh, $25,000). 
• 13 of the 25 were selected in the first round, 3 were selected in the second round, 3 were selected in the third round, 1 in the fourth round and 5 in the fifth round.
• 17 received at least a $1,000,000 bonus.
• 3 of the remaining 8 pitchers received between $500,000 and $999,999. 
• 5 pitchers received less than $500,000: Bryce Miller (2021 4th round, $400,000), Hunter Brown (2021 4th round, $325,000), Tanner Bibee (2021 5th round, $259,400), Brandon Pfaadt (2020 5th round, $100,000) and Stone (2020 5th round, $97,500)

Conclusion

The Red Sox’ hitter-centric approach in the amateur draft in the last six years has been very successful in producing potential high-end position players (Triston Casas, Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kyle Teel), but it has left the system imbalanced, with a surplus of position players and little potential starting pitcher depth. There is more certainty when drafting hitters, as pitchers are a riskier demographic than hitters, and the data shows the chances of a first-round pitcher turning into a major leaguer are lower than those for position players (Baseball America had an interesting article that dives into this data here). The data also shows that the drop-off in the likelihood of a pitcher making the majors who is drafted in the first round compared to the second is much higher than that of hitters, so if a team wants to give itself the best chance to develop homegrown impact starters, draft resources need to be devoted there.

   
The Red Sox’s hitter-centric strategy could still be successful in developing a balanced roster, especially if the pitching staff was buoyed by external investment in the free agent market and/or via trades of hitting prospects for pitching. The best example of such a hitting-for-pitching swap is Arizona sending prospect Jazz Chisholm, then in Double-A, to Miamif for Zac Gallen, who had a few major league starts under his belt. Another example would be the deal Tampa and Cleveland struck last year, swapping Kyle Manzardo for Aaron Civale. However, it is not always as simple as moving a hitter for a pitcher, as teams often want starting pitching prospects for their established starters, and that’s not something the Red Sox have had to offer beyond Bello in recent years. As a result, the team finds itself with a number of young major league and potential major league arms, but with questions about how many are capable of becoming the impact starters they need. 

With a new chief of baseball operations sporting a pitching-centric background and a revamped pitching infrastructure, it will be interesting to see if the club’s draft tendencies start to change going forward. Teams like the Yankees and Mariners have shown that potential high-end starters can be found in the mid-to-late first round and beyond, while still allocating plenty of resources to hitters. An approach like that could make sense for the Red Sox to help balance out the system and give this new development staff the best chance to develop a consistent pipeline of potential starting pitcher prospects coming through the system. 

All bonus information was sourced from Baseball Reference draft pages and the Baseball America MLB Draft Database. Two-way draftees were given a designation of either hitter or pitcher depending on what they have done in the minor leagues and what their most likely MLB position was. Padres 2023 7th-round pick Tucker Musgrove ($175,000 bonus) was omitted from the study as he has yet to debut as a two-way player and it isn't clear what his ultimate position is most likely to be, unlike the other two-way draftees.

Photo Credit: Hunter Dobbins by Kelly O'Connor.

Ian Cundall is Director of Scouting for SoxProspects.com. Follow him on Twitter @IanCundall.

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